Working holiday visa for NZ and Philippines

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Wow, big news for Filipinos and New Zealanders! I can't help feeling John Key reads my blogs given my postings over the last year, as well as comments I've made in the Wanganui Chronicle. Well, perhaps a little arrogant to think I'm the only one with a brain in NZ. Anyway, let me put your mind at ease....I'm not currently in NZ. 

Ground breaking news for New Zealanders and Filipinos looking for business and holiday opportunities. These two countries have committed themselves to a working holiday scheme. The reason it’s a big deal is because:
1. For NZ, it is a possible precursor to a more relaxed program to employ Filipinos
2. For Filipinos, it’s a possible precursor to other developing nations adopting a similar scheme. Now, if I was a Filipino, I would be looking for a similar scheme from Japan in the next few years because they will want to place downward pressure on wages, and they will want to address an aging population, so they will want more carers. Japanese people will also love to stay in Cebu and learn English, though they might snub the working opportunity, unless they are able to work in an upmarket Japanese restaurant for a Japanese clientele.
Back to the current topics of this conversation – the Philippines and NZ. Its easy to get excited about this scheme, however it is highly restrictive or limiting in many respects. Consider that:
1. Employability in NZ is not a gateway to permanent residency, however it might be a gateway to a sexy girl for NZ men, prostitution, employment scams,
2. It’s not an invitation to do business in the Philippines for young NZ’ers who could plausibly market Filipino skills in Australia & NZ in particular.
If we were being cynical, we might ask, who does this scheme really benefit? Well, aside from the promise of more, particularly for Filipinos, we might say:
1. It gives NZ farmers access to cheap and plentiful supplies of labour on their bee, dairy, and various other farm enterprises…places where NZ’ers don’t want to work.
2. It does not preclude Filipinos seeking a working visa after the 1year working holiday visa; but this is only likely I suspect if you have good skills training…in which case, you might be better applying straight away for that.
3. It’s a scheme to encourage Filipinos to spend money in NZ; and the ‘key money’ to enter the country will be priced to keep out the poor, i.e. You need $US6,000. So this is a scheme for astute prostitutes or Filipinos with family already in a Western country.
My problem with this scheme is that it does not go far enough. Both these countries have an unemployment problem; a problem which largely results from govt interference and a wage price disequilibrium. A skilled Filipino gets $NZ850 compared to $NZ3000 per month. So you’d at least expect these countries to be trying to:
1. Encourage NZ businesses to be investing in Philippine farming
2. Filipinos encouraged to get skills and permanently settle in NZ
This would of course facilitate investment in both countries. Instead; both countries are solely interested in ‘consumption’ – whether its Filipinos spending holidays in NZ, or NZ’ers going to the Philippines for surfing holidays I guess. My concern is that 18-30yo New Zealanders going to the Philippines without a care in the world, might be inclined to pick up some sexually transmitted or other infections, and take them back to NZ. They need to be careful about the place in that respect. Teens are not accustomed to thinking about the long term implications of today’s decisions. Suddenly they can afford too much.
There is also the prospect of scamming. The youths are allowed to work, study and stay in the host country for 12 months, but for no more than any 3 months for any given employer. The problem is that there is likely to be scamming in this area. You might expect little work for Kiwis in the Philippines.
The cream of the Filipino working community are going to have a big impact on NZ. Personally, given their education, I think NZ’ers will undervalue the workmanship of these Filipinos. No doubt it will be a wake-up call to NZ. The problem of course is that most of these 3mth jobs will only arise in cafes and temporary work on dairy and bee farms. Hardly a workplace to roadshow the Filipino skills. So why would a skilled Filipino from a wealthy family engage in that? Well, there is still the café jobs. The problem is that no one is spending in NZ. One wonders if this scheme will achieve much since it seems too restrictive. Might Filipinos be better off going to HK or Singapore? No question; but it might suit some looking for som skills and English fluency before they enter these markets. The minimum wage in NZ is $NZ13/hr, or $US10/hr, and it’s a “no tips” culture. There is work in NZ in the cities. I know a Filipino with a great attitude who has 3 jobs to support his wife & 3 kids.
This is hardly a scheme to encourage NZ business investment in the Philippines, though President Aquino has made progress curtailing corruption. One has to question however the appeal of strategies which encourage Filipinos to go abroad; whilst NZ is hardly seeking terms which encourage investment in ‘high growth’ Philippines, i.e. Why not progress to allow foreigners to buy property in the Philippines, to raise local living standards, investment opportunities and create jobs. Instead, the brightest Filipinos are being lured overseas. This means a steady stream of remittances and of course the persistence of old-style political oligarchs.
At the end of the day, NZ needs to build its population since it seems compelled to sabotage growth. Constraining people to just work subsistence-level wages results in little skills development.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Turnaround in NZ values?

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NZ has had a lot of positive news for foreign immigrants in recent times. This news includes:

1. Korean women junior golf player who won a Canadian contest

2. A Japanese-NZ couple who are winning accolades with their edgy men's and women's fashion in Christchurch. 

Immigrants have had a bad deal in NZ over the years; however there are signs that at least the media is trying to change perceptions; and they have been supported by a number of positive stories. There are of course a great many unpublicised stories; whether its your store owner who sells you Indian food or a Turkish kebab, or the Thai panel beater servicing your car. Not a bum attitude among them as far as I can see. NZ does need to appreciate it that these are the developing world's finest, who have the luxury and courage to travel overseas and set up in a new country. I personally think NZ would be a better place if NZ'ers travelled overseas for a broader perspective. I recommend:

1. Japan - if you can teach English, develop a retail biz

2. Philippines - same

3. Australia - too familiar but there are many opportunities there, and it might make more sense for some activities

Old NZ town, Arrowtown, Otago - Queenstown - has one of the most diverse communities in NZ

It takes time for attitudes to change. It is however good to see the NZ government or media taking measures to change attitudes. After all, Chinese people are changing as well. I recall the Japanese governments taking steps in the 1960s to 'civilise' their people, who had a negative perception in global markets. The Japanese government launched an education campaign to change those perceptions. Today, the Japanese have Hollywood-style romantic notions of love, civility and respect. Whilst they don't convey the deeper significance of those values; its fair to say they have grown whilst Westerners have declined. The same trend can be expected for the Chinese. I've seen news of similar programs in China. No doubt they will prosecute spitting, etc, just as they did in Singapore. Travellers to China will experience even old ladies spitting in the streets. Not the most pleasant of habits in over-populated cities. 

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Immigrating to New Zealand

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I have dealt with a lot of Asians over the years; had relationships with them, met them on planes, in their own countries, had relationships with them. A great number of them want to travel abroad. A great number of them are ignorant about the journey upon which they will embark. Their ignorance stems from the fact:

1. They have little knowledge of Western society - the failings of their schools perhaps, or simply because there are many countries, and assumptions are likely about countries and opportunities.

2. They are misled by migration agents/brokers and friends, whose context is often very different. We all want to offer encouragement, but sometimes we do it in half-measure, so people leave for a foreign nation, and end up disappointed. Migration agents make money by placing you in other countries, after which point, they have been paid, and you are poorly positioned to take legal action against them. They might not be well-regulated, because governments have protected themselves, and they care little about you.

3. Their qualifications not reecognised. A great many Asians have qualifications in their own country which are not recognised. This places them in a difficult situation in their host country. If you are Japanese or Korean, maybe you can get a job in the host country's major cities because there are many tourists from your home country. Otherwise, without high English standards or local degree, you will surely struggle to find job. Do you want to end up in a dead-end job selling trickets to tourists. You can do that in the developing world. 

4. Learning English - It is expensive to study in the West; they charge you a premium as a foreigner to get a 'gold plate' accredited degree, and then yon need to study a vocational course. Why bother? You are starting from behind, with a Western debt legacy. 

5. Find a partner - Maybe you hope to meet a Western guy/girl. The problem is that you will encounter a great many insincere partners who just want to have sex. A cultural distinction can be a point of interest however, but the question is whether the partners have identified the fundamental differences in their values. Soon they might be confronting an inter-racial custody battle for children, and you are at a disadvantage in a legal system you cannot afford, understand, or count upon for support. 

6. Finding a job - It can take years to find a job. Unless your vocation is in demand, it can take years, and even they they might prejudicially give you the low-challenge jobs, or maybe your education is not recognised or as good. So from the start, you seem to struggling with challenges that no one else has to contend with.

7. Support for immigrants is often lacking. The welfare system was not designed for you; you don't have the same support as 'locals', even though you pay taxes. Having said this, many Asian communities have community groups to support their local migrant population, and they are a great source of support. If they are strong, they can aid to ensure government policy is fair. 

8. Expensive services in the West. You will pay high rent in the West; with little hope of ever being able to afford a house given that they are sold at 10x annual earnings; and with your poor English, maybe it will take you 30 years to get a house, and you will pay 50% of your income in rent. Schooling is expensive, and maybe you need to support family at home. 

There is another element with NZ. Immigration is hard...but its harder in NZ because:

1. Levels of prejudice are high. NZ polls suggest that most NZ'ers do not want immigration. The reason is that they are sensitive to seeing their cultural values change. They likely their traditional English values. They were always an illusion; since they dishonestly kept the details of their dubious Christian lives from others, so we never knew the worst of it. This is not always bad. The fact that NZ'ers are prejudicial means that some go out of their way to show they are different, i.e. They will recommend you for jobs, whether you deserve it or not, and sometimes because you deserve it, and they want to try hard to accommodate you. Sometimes its because they pragmatically want more population in NZ. 

2. Low growth. In NZ there are not so many jobs, incomes are low by Western standards, and the population is small and isolated. People are asset-rich but income poor; particularly in those depopulating rural towns. The inflow of immigrants is scarcely high enough to offset the outflow of migrants each year, and some of those migrants are people who have migrated to NZ, and decided that matters in NZ are so bad that they want to go home. Surprisingly, its actually the people who are doing best in NZ who are the ones going abroad; usually to Australia, but often to their home countries, Singapore or the USA, where some also have relatives. Life is too hard in NZ; particularly if you have children. Crime is relatively high on the North Island, and property prices is high too. You might end up being a slave for another person's dream. Choose well! A late change of plans is expensive. Do you want to pay a 2nd set of costs to move again, and then have to make new friends, buy new furniture, start your career again; another set of visa application fees, twice has high as NZ (at least in Australia). You will come to feel like an economic slave. Think well before migrating. Many people go back home, losing a great deal of money on forex rates, currency conversion, opportunity costs, shipping. 

We all have a bitter taste about our own countries; their decline in values. Anywhere in the world looks better than our own place. Sometimes you need to fight for what you believe where your message is strongest - in your own country - making use of existing relationships. The most important things in life are best achieved in your home country:

1. Career

2. Relationships

3. Internal (housing) environment

4. External environment 

Only this last one is better in the West because of the legacy of prosperity. But the most important elements are best in your own country. If you want the best, find the best in your country; don't migrate to the ends of the earth; its a false dream; migrate to somewhere where you will be appreciated. i.e. Your big cities are rich in culture and prosperity, and they will rapidly emerge. Within a few decades you will be able to holiday in the West, and you might not even want to. 

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NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Kiwis - a boat problem

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This is one of the more amusing stories to come out in NZ. It seems there is a 'Kiwi boat people' issue, as well as 'fly-by-night' Kiwis coming into Australia. Yes, a Kiwi resident multimillionaire has exposed to risk to Australia of people coming to Australia by boat or plane. Presumably these are low-flying planes which fly from the West Coast of NZ to some private 'bush' airport in Australia. It seems equally plausible that such avenues might be used for drugs into Australia....the implication being that NZ is a 'weak link' in Australia's border protection.

This issue comes to hand because of the Kim Dotcom fiasco. Australia seems more concerned about the influx of Arabs. Do we have a problem on our 'rear flank'...it would seem so. If we don't control the 'Kiwi situation', we might never stop them. :) These birds were flying when they left Australia. Some 50mil years after....they are flying back. You can't question their judgement...this Australia Day!

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

NZ net immigration numbers

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Have you been wondering why Kiwis living moving abroad has come to an abrupt halt. I can think of several reasons:

1. The earthquake threat has waned. There are a few 4+ earthquakes; but after a 6+ magnitude quakes, anything less starts to look commonplace; particularly after you realise that all the weakly constructed buildings have fallen; and that anything which posed a threat to life was probably in the CBD. Why? Most houses are made of wooden construction or are single floor dwellings. The greatest threat is probably the old brick chimneys.

2. The strong commodity prices are falling back as punters take their money off the table. These falls have yet to take their toll on the NZ rural market, nor the currency. In any respect, these revenues tend to be protected by corresponding falls in commodity prices. They do however provide a window to buy new machinery offshore. The fact remains, the important agricultural business activity in NZ is going to be doing ok.

3. The World Cup - Who is going to be going overseas during the World Cup - unless you are leasing out your house for $3000/month.

4. Australian slump - The commodity price slide is likely to take the strength out of Australian markets, though it will recover. Nothing can keep them down; as lower commodities denominated in USD are offset by weakness in the AUD, which spared the local economy much impact, as long as volumes are maintained. Australia is closer to China and Asia, than Chile, Brazil and South Africa, so it tends to benefit on the volume side.

5. British visas for NZ'ers look like being severely restricted. Given the lack of business confidence in the UK, this is likely to be a bigger threat to existing UK residents than those contemplating going over. Thus we might expect a flood of Kiwis to return to NZ. This of course will mean more Kiwis going to Australia, given the relative strength of its economy.

6. Earthquake reconstruction - You might not want to live in Christchurch anymore, at least not for the lack of things to do, but consider that most of the 'earthquake threats' have been knocked over by the series of earthquakes, and anything new is going to be built to NZ standards. Japan has greater vulnerability to earthquakes, and has been living with them without much trauma. The tsunami threat was under-estimated or even ignored. A single governor in the north made provisions. In that city; they lost just one life. Praise to that critical, conceptual thinker who 'saw around corners' what others chose not to acknowledge. The reconstruction of Christchurch will become a source of employment over the next 5 years; the question is - will it attract new job hunters or result in higher home construction costs. My guess is the later.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

The toxic New Zealand market place

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In previous articles, we have raised the spectre of poor infrastructure and servicing in the NZ economy. We drew attention over the last few years to train stoppages, power outages, road quality, economic regulation, the high cost of food, petrol and electricity.

It all reaches a crescendo with the Day 1 of the World Cup Rugby. The World Cup was supposed to be a boon for tourism, and to focus attention on the country. It has certainly done that, but it has not exactly been a positive. The highlights so far:

1. Train stoppages which caused 'green' patrons to miss their World Cup game

2. Binge drinking highlighting what rugby is really about - an excuse for a drink.

This is Western culture at its best. Working hard doing some job you don't enjoy, for the sake of some intoxication over a game.

This week we have witnessed further news of an ongoing stream of New Zealanders going to Australia. Our neighbours have just come back from the Gold Coast. They could not speak more highly of the place. Contrary to all the media talk, if you are employable in NZ, you will get a job in Australia. Those that can't here, can't get there.

There are several problems in NZ. Conservative politics which suggest there is too much regulation in NZ. Contrary to this 'economic rationalism', there is actually too little. The reason there is too little is because the only way business can make a profit here is by:

1. Relying on government sponsored extortion, i.e. The privatisation of electricity which locked in high electricity prices by pricing capacity at the 'high cost' margin, i.e. Never mind that 70% of capacity was free when it was a government asset. A boon for the government upon sale? No, actually the benefit went to investors as electricity prices rise endlessly in this 'non-competitive' market regime.

2. Plan old business extortion where you offer poor service, make misrepresentations, over-charge, etc. We have had so many such issues in NZ, that it truly places NZ on par with the third world.

3. Government extortion is another game played in this market, where governments attempt to extort wealth from private investors in order to conceal their failings. Take a look at this extortion by Wanganui District Council. In this case, its a foreign businessman being extorted by the government.

NZ would be a very pleasant place if government could actually orchestrate growth and deal with the embedded injustices and social problems. Don't expect any of those developments with a pragmatic PM. I recall a libertarian businessman being enthusiastic upon the appointment of John Key to the NP leadership. What was he thinking?

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Australian refugees to NZ

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At face value, John Key might look like a great humanitarian for considering the intake of 800-odd refugees that Australia wants to send off to Malaysia. The problem with the move is that he might be giving people smugglers the belief that NZ is an open door. This could be bad news for both:

1. Australia - because people will come to Australia with the expectation of ending up in NZ

2. New Zealand - it will be directly targeted by people smugglers knowing that the media news can be used to 'sell NZ' to prospective refugees.

Consider this - Afghanistan is a huge source of heroin; so might we see more sophisticated vessels bringing heroin and people to NZ, which is relatively lightly patrolled for refugees. NZ should be careful to avoid this can of worms. Of course both Australia and NZ are relatively isolated, however if resources from heroin trafficking were to enter into the people trafficking market, using GPS systems, there seems little reason why NZ could not be targeted.

The risk might be low. But it appears that Key is intent on helping to embarrass the Australian Labor Party. For NZ, it is a small number of people. A token gesture. But its not a trade I would so keen to entertain.

The problem with this issue is that Western countries should be doing more to secure political freedom in these countries so refugees are not compelled to engage in trade with people smugglers. The best way of doing that is adopting coherent political systems. John Key last night proved to me he is not about that. He is dangerously anti-ideological or pragmatic.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Immigration decisions - Martin Payne

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The decision-making capacities of the Immigration Dept are looking a bit dodgy in NZ. In the same week that a murderer has been allowed to stay, an old businessman who moved here on a Entrepreneurs Visa, paid $700,000 for a business, employs people in one of the highest unemployed areas, has family here, has business revenues of $2million, has been rejected.

The problem of course seems to be the way the cases were assessed. The businessman was given a visa, so he should be allowed to stay. There is an expectation of continuity when you establish a business. Deporting him can only do irreparable harm to his commercial activities, having already prompted him to move half way around the world. Read the story at the NZ Herald. You can support this guy on Facebook.

NZ Property Guide Philippine Real Estate Guide Japan Foreclosed Guide

Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com