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Showing posts with label Wanganui. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Wanganui. Show all posts

Monday, October 7, 2013

Debate between Wanganui councillors - James Penn and Michael Laws

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Last night the people of Wanganui were treated to some rare entertainment – a match between ‘David and Goliath’. Ok, better still, David’s son and Goliath. Interestingly, recently Malcolm Gladwell has given new meaning to the tale of ‘David and Goliath’, and this tale is analogous in some respects. The combatants are candidates in the running for Wanganui District Council. James Penn, is a local 19yo graduate of Wanganui High School, and a NZ Debating Champion, who is a 1st year university student in Auckland, studying law and commerce. Michael Laws is a sitting councillor of Wanganui, a former mayor of the city, and a former National Party MP.
It was a match between ‘the old guard’ and ‘a young buck’. There were several interesting issues about this contest:
1. The disparity in values – It struck me as a contest between an old conservative and a young libertarian; though based on Penn’s policy, arguably a conservative with a preference for smaller government  (utilitarianist). Penn looked professional throughout the debate; his open-mindedness plausibly a redeeming appendage to his youthful ignorance.
2. The disparity in debating styles – Penn is strictly correct whilst Laws is intimidating and plays dirty, at times losing credibility and respect with the audience. His attacks were often straw arguments or red herrings, and on one occasion he conflated his discredited argument with Penn's rebuttal. So much for intellectual honesty. He'd on occasion had to temper his outrageousness.
3. The value proposition offered by both candidates – Old people are important because of their historical knowledge; but youth brings new ideas and methods. There is a role for both.

James Penn is a star pupil, so despite his tender years, you’d expect some ‘fight, both in terms of factual content and ‘worldly experience’. James is not without worldly experience. He comes from an upwardly mobile family, has travelled extensively, and lived abroad (UK). More poignant is the following. Ignorance or the lack of experience (as you’d expect in an 19yo) is not necessarily a bad thing. Earlier in the week I was talking to a sitting councilor Rangi Wills. A knowledgeable man whom we could all learn a lot from. You want that type of knowledge on council. The problem I have, conveyed by both Rangi Wills and Michael Laws, is their ‘presumption of knowledge’, whereas a ‘young buck’ like James is less likely to presume facts and arguments. Particularly a star pupil like James, who is less likely to defer to other people’s views. He is more likely to go off and research topics. You can make much of his need to focus on studies, particularly since law is an area of study that requires a great deal of reading. Unless he can make case studies of Wanganui, I wonder if he will be able to serve Wanganui effectively, particularly given the 'role' I see him filling. He will need reading in order to develop 'arguments' against the old guard. One of the reasons why star pupils are stars is because most people don’t develop aptitude in critical thinking. In many schools, its only taught to the best students, if at all. James would have developed these skills as a debater in school. It was evident last night against a formidable and intimidating opponent.
In the case of Rangi Wills early in the week, my topic was ‘waterworks’. I’d read in the Wanganui Chronicle that there was a requirement to spend $40 million-odd on flood mitigation to protect housing/urban areas in Wanganui East. I emailed my solution to Rangi over a year ago. I never got a reply. He said he gets 90 emails a day. I can’t believe its rate payers, so he must have an active social life, or perhaps he is a busy career man. In any respect, he wasn’t addressing my concerns. In our conversation, he played down my suggestion, arguing that there would be a lot of public opposition to a dam on the Upper Wanganui River, and that the area had been investigated in the 1970s, and the area found to be ‘geologically unsuited’ for a hydro storage. Currently there is an oversupply of electricity in NZ thanks to the imminent closure of the Rio Tinto smelter (which I actually foresaw), however irrespective of the market context, a producing/profitable asset is better than simply a flood mitigation scheme that 'protects' what already exists. You could argue a flood would only 'immerse' houses, and not write them off. I'm not in a position to know. They are issues that should be addressed. The fact is that new engineering solutions are being developed all of the time; and we need young people who are prepared to find them. Maybe its not an issue for a 'young prospective lawyer' so much as a 'young engineer'.

Now, this is the useful technical knowledge that you want on council. Local governments need good technical knowledge. It does not have to come from the inside; however outside consultants also have a tendency to offer 'safe' proven solutions. There needs to be a tender and project team to entertain alternative solutions. A mayor hydro scheme might actually win private-national government support; particularly if such a scheme could function as a load balancing reserve like the Snowy River Scheme in Australia. But I’d also be interested in knowing if any technological innovations have occurred in the last 30 years to challenge this ‘accepted wisdom’ because most things are ‘bad ideas’ until a new engineer comes along and proves otherwise.
In this particular debate, Michael Laws, older and more experienced, was telling James Penn that ‘innovation funds always fail’. A woman from the audience cited ‘her evidence’ that micro-finance worked in Africa. I too know that micro-finance has worked very well in third world countries. No idea should be dismissed out of hand, however it must be acknowledged that the context is different. Third world communities are 'low-skill' countries that can afford to work with low-cost capital. They struggle to buy a sewing machine. This is not the nature of the Western 'capital hurdle'. The greater concern is that Western kids, and rural kids particularly, are not as 'commercially astute' or savvy as they need to be. Financial literacy is at a low point. Its not just about 'backing winners'; its about ensuring that your 'youth capital' has the right values to actually want to succeed. As Michael indicated, its little point helping youths if they are inevitably going to leave, and they should leave. I went to Japan and the Philippines, and now in my 40s, I'm in Wanganui as Michael said.

The problem with old people is that they are accustomed to being right; that they can struggle with the possibility that they are wrong. They are always armed with more factual evidence to convince themselves that they are right. Pretty soon they are only reading materials that actually supports their view, if they read at all. Sometimes they'll read contrary views and find some rationalisation to reject it. Michael was adamant that ‘innovation funds never work’. The reality is that ‘government funded custodial funds’ usually do fail, and there is good reasons for this to be the case. The point being that Michael Laws never saw the ‘black swan’ to know that not all swans are white. This is not a justification for James Penn's innovation fund; its reason to look at its merits. This is where youth and critical thinking are useful. Now, you might question whether James is too young. Well, there is another issue and that is context. We live in an internet world now. There is so much knowledge online these days, that youths are exposed to such a diaspora of information, that they are far more knowledgeable than these old folk when they were of equivalent age. More importantly, they are more adept at researching in the modern era. James brings that dynamism as well as critical thinking to the table. He will however have his limits however because he is barely out of school. Don't expect him to be a Fullbright Scholar from the get-go; but does he offer something on Wanganui Council...I think so.

Not everything went well for both candidates. Both candidates failed to pick up on a flaws in their ‘economic policy’. Wanganui Council is struggling with high debt levels. The response of both candidates conveyed some ignorance of finance. Laws wants to ‘peg rates to inflation’ whilst Penn wants to index them to ‘inflation plus’. Penn did qualify that by saying that he would use more discretion. The reality however is that it should only be about ‘cost vs benefit’ to rate payers; most particularly when debt is so cheap. If you are going to use debt, now is the time. You would think debt is therefore an opportunity. The problem is that councils are 'democracies' and democracies are majoritive rather than rational, and the clowns are usually in the majority. We need more critical thinkers like James Penn, Michael Laws and Rory Smith, and fewer populists like Phillipa Baker-Hogan and Hamish McDouall.
You can argue that there is an assessment about ‘which ratepayers’ given some level of cross-subsidisation across the electorate, but inflation is not a good barometer, and it should never have been flagged as a benchmark of suffering because ‘inflation’ is not a benchmark of purchasing power. This is mythology. There is no correlation between inflation and cost of living. Consider:
1. Monetary policy changes need not pass through to ‘cost of living’ inflation; but rather through to ‘asset inflation’. Clearly people on a pension are most vulnerable to the latter; and that people in Wanganui are less exposed to ‘asset inflation’ because of depopulation.
2. There is an over-supply of labour and competition from Asian labour markets, so there is no growth in ‘unskilled’ wage costs. People living on benefits and pensions are therefore vulnerable; so that is probably a starting point for rates. Maybe the selling argument for Wanganui is a 'rates regime that is indexed to the pension', as opposed to inflation. Would that not give certainty to a lot of rate payers and lifetime pension collectors. Of course, these are not high-income recipients, but at least it would fill vacant housing stock and get the construction industry going.
So both candidates did poorly on this issue; and both candidates failed to address the ‘elephant in the room’, which is the poor perception of Wanganui – thanks to crime. Unless any candidate is prepared to address the social issues in the town, then people are simply going to avoid Wanganui. Laws unfortunately has a track record in this arena as former mayor. More problematic perhaps is the fact that he ‘still has a voice’. In fairness to Michael, he is a very articulate and good critical thinker; the problem is that he is not ‘self-critical’. His deference to his own ego is immeasurable. This is a problem for Wanganui because ‘as a leader in the community’ he becomes a ‘significant danger’ for the following reasons:
1. Andrew Wilson was not a threat to Wanganui. Media coverage had ‘exposed it’. Laws took the issue national, and made Wanganui a ‘pedophile haven’ when in a broader ‘weighted’ perspective, we ought to realize that 75-85% of pedophilia occurs within the family.
2. Laws, and others like Hamish McDouall, our local Labour Party candidate gave this a profile it did not need, in order to fight ‘a not-in-my-backyard’ (NIMBY) campaign. They were even prepared to take it to the High Court. This is one way council mayors and councillors have been wasting rate payer money. In James hands, Wilson would have been probably treated as any other paedophile….given that they are all around us. Laws created a false stereotype…but it gets worse.
3. Laws was engaging, along with other councillors, and they should all be identified by the Wanganui Chronicle, in fear-mongering for populist reasons. Philippa Hogan-Baker is out doing the same over illegal highs. Laws actually was critical of Hogan-Baker, and rightly so, but again, he simply lacks the ‘self-critical’ quality that has him ‘pinned as an autocrat’, yet he stands ready to identify Penn as so. Pot...Kettle from Laws. The problem with Laws fear-mongering is that people in the streets of Wanganui are now vulnerable to accusations of incest simply by talking to a child or walking along the street. He has created that much fear. Laws has precipitated a witch-hunt. I know of one case; it would be interesting to know from police if there had been an escalation in ‘reported incests’ since this issue became a national scandal. Awareness is great - but let it be cased on facts and understanding; not fear and loathing.

In terms of debating skills, James Penn was far more dignified and respectful to his counter-party, but Laws was able to land some ‘illegal punches’ so to speak, as well as some 'solid blows'. James did allow Laws to lampoon him on seemingly a simple issue of ‘h’ in Wanganui. He should have more strongly argued that Laws made the ‘h issue’ a national issue by holding a referendum on it. Moreover Penn allowed Laws to attack him as ‘undemocratic’ because he would not have funded the referendum on the ‘h word’. He needed to reiterate that it was a small issue that needed a decision from the council, not populist mandates from  a costly referendum. People don't know what they want until they are educated. Michael Laws rendered a 'straw argument', that its democracy or not. Not that simple Michael; its a question of the 'type' of people participation. So Michael peddling false dichotomies.

Laws did convey a better awareness of the dynamics which shape Wanganui. He correctly realizes, as in other rural cities worldwide, that youth tends to leave for the big cities, and likewise it can be argued that most immigrants tend to prefer cities for the greater support for their respective cultures. Laws therefore wants to target former residents when they have children. Which poses the question – why is he making Wanganui about Wilson? He might well argue that Wilson has a threat to that image. I would argue he blew the issue out of perspective. We are surrounded by paedophiles. Risk is managed; not avoided. Laws created unrealistic fears; precipitated scaremongering (along with other councillors) and failed to even observe the evidence related to paedophilia. He ditched the ‘selling point’ he had identified for Wanganui for populism. He was however right on another issue. Wanganui cannot match the cities for night-life; but by the same terms, Wanganui could do a lot better to cater for youths. Maybe it only requires an inter-city bus at opportune times. i.e. What if drunkards could be taken off the road at night by being given a ‘low-cost bus service’ to and from Palmerston, and vice versa, so that folk here would have a ‘cheap’ means of taking in other restaurants and pubs, and Palmerston can do vice versa. Even if it was a ‘pre-booked’ opportunity offered infrequently. This would partially see more people spending money in other cities, but at least it would mean ‘intra-regional’ opportunity and dynamism, and it might serve to keep people in the community. Maybe it might see people living in Wanganui, but working in Palmerston North. Likewise people in Palmerston North might welcome a trip to Wanganui and its beach. Such a means might even be a means of increasingly services from their respective airports. A one-hour bus to Wanganui airport for a flight to Auckland, or a one-hour bus to Palmerston North for a flight to Christchurch. It might be the better alternative to a poor transfer in Wellington en-route to Christchurch or Sydney for business people who these days don't need to live in these high-cost cities. These are the type of ‘flexible’ work-arounds that allow business and their families to locate in Wanganui. Being from Sydney myself, it is a very hard commute to East Coast Australia. If there were more flexible arrangements for business and regular commuters, Wanganui would attract more people. We already have pretty seemless arrangements to Australia, so better connections might be a precursor to more Australians, and for 'Big Oil' seeking oil & gas offshore NZ, better flight connectivity might actually pip Wanganui over New Plymouth as a regional office serving these offshore fields, given that Wanganui is closer to the centre of government.

I’d love to see James Penn on the council. More concerning however is that he is only one voice. We need 6 other James Penn’s, well perhaps somewhat older, in order to ensure a ‘reflective’ critical perspective of city issues. One of the huge problems for cities in NZ is keeping skilled persons, and Wanganui is more vulnerable than most communities because its small and depopulating.

You can view the entertaining debate at Wanganui Online.

Michael Laws for mayor?
One of the pressing issues with respect to Laws is the fact that he is also one of 3 candidates looking to become mayor. The problem is that he simply lacks credibility for a number of reasons – least of all his track record on mayoral issues. He has supplanted the prospect of a healthy image for Wanganui with a deference for his own ‘pseudo-ego’. On the issue of gang patches and Stuart Murray Wilson, he placed the image of Wanganui in the media for all the wrong reasons. Now, in fairness to him, Wanganui has social issues, but he made no progress resolving those. The greater issue is that no leader is making a difference on this issue. They simply don’t because there is little insight on this issue, inside and even outside the community. Wanganui needs to find its own innovative solutions. Laws acknowledges ‘the lack of leadership in social services’, but he did not deliver as councillor or mayor in this respect. Frankly, the city is without a capable leader, so I'd argue that it needs 'by default' Annette Main with a more capable CEO who can actually tackle those issues. Clearly that is not a person to be elected; its an appointment.
The other problem with Laws as leader is that he is simply an egomaniac who needs to be the centre of attention. Humorous until you receive your rates bill and wonder where does it go. He is a capable contributor as a councillor, but he’s utterly destructive as a community spokesperson. Even his role as a radio host is ominous. For this reason, I’d prefer to see Annette Main as mayor and both Michael Laws and James Penn as councillors. I think there are other capable people as councillors, but I’d like to see Penn elected most particularly for what he can become as a ‘future mayor’? He might instead be a future MP for Wanganui in a few years when Chester Burrows retires. Who knows.

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Friday, January 13, 2012

Wanganui: Small town thinking for big town problem

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NZ residents of Wanganui are being asked whether they ought to approve a $141 million flood mitigation plan - a huge cost burden for a depopulating town, when there is a far more prudent and lucrative opportunity - build a hydro-electric scheme. My thoughts posted at Wanganui Chronicle letters below:
How about a flood mitigation scheme upriver to avoid the prospect of a flood and generate hydro-electricity for a century for free. Maybe the city could get free electricity, to offset the extortion by the power companies after stage 2 of the privatisation/self-regulation. Perhaps the council could finance the scheme through its EnergyDirect investment (50% owned by the council)....though maybe self-regulation precludes such vertical integration. I forget.
I might add - a few greenies might be flooded out of the valley at the same time. Seriously, though, why spend $141.4 million on remedial work when you can create something of value or productive, that ultimately serves 2 purposes, perhaps 3 (water supply in times of drought).
This of course is too abstract for councils accustomed to reactionary solutions. Why spend on costs when you can create assets. Of course Annette Main, whose property lies in this vicinity could be expected to have a vested interest, so maybe no progress will be made. Perhaps she needs to keep a back seat in our extortion-based political system.

Think about the following figures - electricity prices in NZ - page 148 of the Ministry of Development website. Comparing the ratio of residential electricity prices / industrial electricity prices - suggests a 2.5x premium for residential consumers over bulk electricity consumers. Its the worst ratio in the world...then look at the same ratio for gas...its even worse 4.8x - so consumers are being ripped off by producers and distributors of gas and electricity despite the capital cost of these assets being fully sunk by govt by the 1980s, and no fuel cost for the 70% of generating capacity which is hydro.
Perhaps rate payers ought to convince the council to 'invest' in new generating capacity rather than spending on 'damage prevention'....that's a rather expensive contingency planning 'cost' for an event that may not occur; protection which might not work; and work that offers no improvement. Perhaps council could even protect ratepayers from the extortionate prices of the national powerco's by offering ratepayers a cost+ROI electricity price; or better still adopt market pricing, and retain the power asset revenue to alleviate future rates. Concessional electricity prices could also be used to attract new industries. You wanted jobs didn't you. Cheap electricity is known to attract jobs. But will you allow a dam on the Wanganui River?? If it protects your homes?

Am I missing something?

Tuesday, September 27, 2011

Wanganui - the best property value in NZ

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The latest property affordability survey results place Wanganui first in NZ as the most affordable for living. I have lived in Wanganui for the last 3 years. We bought when the NZD was 0.53-0.55 to the USA, and that rate is now $0.80. We expect it will be fairly stable at these rates for the foreseeable future. NZ has healthy exposure to food exports, albeit premium product. We expect some trade off in volumes and prices, and otherwise a soft economic outlook. Not as bad as offshore, and we see monetary policy (i.e. yields) as a weak influence on exchange rates.

If you'd like to know more about Wanganui, take a look at this article in the local newspaper.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Is John Campbell smoking weed?

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One gets a sense that Conservative heads control NZ politics. On Campbell Live, we have John Compbell criticising the ACT Party for having two candidates with two different attitudes on a particular policy - the decriminalising of cannibis. This is a weird position to take. Surely, whatever their position, the fact that they are allowed to display an independent perspective is good in itself. Why is this so controversial? Now, we can have a debate about the merits of the issue. Oh story, John Campbell was not interested in the issue. He was far too cynical for that. Instead, he comes out with another claim....that the ACT Party purposefully caused this controversy in order to get media attention. Well, good for them!
When you consider that the media gives no air time to the minor parties, any strategy they take for getting attention strikes me as good policy. The media loves scandal, and they provided one. And then, the media (aka Joh Campbell cynically rebutts that they were looking for media attention). So why did they engage on this basis. Why don't they engage ACT on any issue, simply because exposing all significant political discourse is desirable. No, that is not the role of the media. The role of the media is:
1. Appeal to the interests and values of the two major parties because they are alligned or relevant to most people
2. Attack minor parties for scandalising issues in order that they may gain some media exposure.

Sadly, the minor parties once again get the short straw. No wonder we have no hide of a chance of getting a third force in parliament. Your choice? No choice. Just a pretense of one.

The poll conducted by Campbell Live showed that 72% of voters believe in decriminalising cannibis. Rest assured that this sample is not representative of the population. Why? Because:
1. The affirmative voters care a great deal about the issue
2. The repudiating voters care less because its just one issue, and they probably don't think it will change.
There is a symmetrical distribution of sensitivity to the issue. Remember - the issue was knocked down by ACT Party Member for Epsom - John Banks, so this issue is going nowhere.

Cannibis should be delegalised, but in a specific context:
1. In the short term 'strictly' for health reasons
2. In the long term when people display a respect for facts and rationality
There is no prospect for that under democracy, because it places perceptions above facts and evasion/repression above rationality.
Brash's rationalism and Bank's pragmatism are both wrong, but then, its not core policy, and at least as a party, they have the freedom to display their own views. Where is the personal integrity in the other parties, which are in fact governed by a form of majoritism-based extortion. Take for example, my local National MP Chester Burrows. He complains to people opposed to the closure of a local DoC's office. "My hands are tied. I've vented my views to the caucus. Its all I can do. You will have to accept my assertion on faith". Even if this were true; it does not serve the electorate he represents to have just a 'vote' for his electorate, but a voice outside the caucus as this will have influence beyond his electorate. Mind you, that would be extortion too, but at least he would be representing his electorate, if that was ever his objective. Nope, as he made clear, its his position first, electorate 2nd, and there is a huge conflict of interest in between. Compare that with the ACT Party representative. He expressed both party and non-party positions at a political meeting.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

NZ - The way to boost "innovation nation"

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Niche industrial player sees the opportunities to provide high value technological services to foreign markets. Laznatech is merely one type of industrial innovation to be found in NZ, and there is room for many more. This is the type of innovation culture that NZ needs to promote. So you might ask how it can go about that:
1. Provide a more encouraging culture at home to attract creative foreigners; not least all those NZ expatriates who might have left for good.
2. Reform the education system to make it more 'externally focused' like Australia's, and more critical thinking.
3. Encourage external relationships in trade and personal interests.
4. Encourage local govts to set up region or national-based hubs in major trading nations to promote trade, familiarity and cultural exchange. I look at NZ efforts at this, and its poor in execution. i.e. Wanganui, my town, has a sister city relationship with Toowoomba in Qld, and some small town in Shizuoka, Japan. The problem with this strategy is that its 'boring' sameness, not interesting 'differentiation'. Why would they come here, and why would we go there. These relationships we defined by their proponents, who as individuals, happened to like living in Wanganui. This fails as a community stretegy. Its success was subsidised by its proponent, then unthinkingly supported by the state. I would suggest Hanno should drop its relationship with Toowoomba because its a competitor, not a prospective partner, and drop its relationship in Shizuoka, and adopt one with Hanno, Saitama. Why? Hanno is likewise a small town, but its on the edge of a big city (Tokyo). There are many factories there. Another good option is Mito, north of Tokyo, close to the airport. Do the same in India, and you just might turn Wanganui into a future IT hub, developing call centres, and VOIP technologies for pertinent industries. Expect technology costs for such centres to come down in future.

Sunday, October 3, 2010

Wanganui has a great outlook

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An article in the Wanganui Chronicle cites real estates saying that foreigners are taking a growing interest in NZ property. There are compelling reasons for taking an interest in NZ....though also some negatives. The positives are:
1. Economic reform - there are some efforts to improve the administration of the economy. i.e. some cost cutting. Some streamlining, like reforms to the Building Code.
2. Local government elections - locally this can be an important issue for expanding population, or retaining people. For instance, Wanganui is one city which would benefit from a turnaround in population. It is a full-service town losing people to the major cities and abroad, unless the new govt can create jobs. It has a better chance than most towns. Elections are being held in Oct-2010.
3. Commodity prices - NZ is a major producer of commodities, and thus it is a pretty hard currency in an era when China and India have an insatiable demand for them. This will tend to support the currency...as long as consumption is controlled, or interest rates are raised to curtail a blow-out in spending.
4. Rural areas offer lifestyle values, but also significant improvements in services. The depth of entertainment in Wanganui is restrictive, but there are a great many good cafes, a full range of good restaurants, e.g. Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian, Thai, Greek, Turkish, Italian, and of course 'meat and potatoes' NZ cosine.

There are however negatives:
1. Population stagnant: The reality is that in recession a lot of NZ'ers are going to Australia in search of jobs, and increasing integration has limited capacity to create 'manufacturing jobs. NZ does however have the ability to export services to Australia, so few NZ'ers need to move to Australia. There is already a 30% wage differential between the countries, so NZ has a growing competitive advantage. At some point this will prove a strong advantage to NZ.
2. Nothing else comes to mind. There is more..there n

The implications for NZ are clear. At some point it will do very well. We might even see a lot of expatriates return. These rural towns will attract more people. People will find value in the rural acreage as lifestyle blocks and subdivisions; however there is also value in cities like Wanganui. I need only compare the prices in cities like New Plymouth and Stratford to Wanganui. Wanganui is cheap because of depopulation. The time will come when it will start to grow its population. The city has a large 'service catchment', it is well-situated between Auckland and Wellington, it is a weekender from Wellington, it has a lot of resource upside from oil & gas and iron ore, as well as agriculture. It is one of the more appealing towns in NZ. It has an 'undeserved' reputation for gangs. I've lived here 2 years and saw the first person who even resembled a gang member last week.
The town is lovely, the people are friendly, and the beach is ok. The city has the nicest gardens. I kind of wish you don't come because I might have to compete for the use of the park services. It is a windy place, but that makes it 'fresh' for a breezy walk around town. I'm only complaining because I'm from Australia, and I still like it.
Other great value I feel is a place like Port Stephens to Taree in NSW, Australia, and maybe Tasmania if you don't mind being isolated from mainland Australia.

Monday, September 13, 2010

Wanganui local government election debate

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I have had the opportunity to get to know some of the candidates for mayor in the lead-up to the Wanganui District Council elections. First of all, whilst I am passionate about ideas, I cannot say I really have much interest in the day-to-day politicking. Having attended one candidates election meeting, and the debate between the top 6 (of 12) candidates, I am really only interested in the process for local elections, as well as the issues which are impacting on Wanganui. I have only been in Wanganui for 2 years, so this was an opportunity to learn more.
I must say the meeting in the Wanganui Memorial Hall was more comic than anything else. How may election campaigns have a self-proclaimed ignoramus who thinks he can learn it on the job, and a boy-wonder (21yo) transvestite. What one realises about politics is that there is a lot of self-promotion. Being a mayor or councillor is a means to get business profile through politics. For this reason, it just might make more sense to reduce the number of councillors from 12 part-time members to 6 full-time members. Why? This would discourage the practice of using politics for business purposes, as well as attracting committed public servants, as well as a higher quality of candidate. Wanganui is a small place. If a 21yo kid is a serious contender then we need to raise the standard.
People will say that kids need representation. True enough, but at 21yo, you have spent more time with a dummy in your mouth than as an independent human being. That is not to say this guy is not smarter than 50% of the population. He is very smart and funny. But lets wait until he has at least learned a few life lessons. He displayed little understanding of economics. Sadly, neither did any of the other candidates.
Phillipa Hogan-Rice (?) opened with by far the best speech, but she really lost it for the impromptu questions. She spent most of the time talking about her sporting career, and how being a parent would make her a better mayor. She even said she was tough because she had to fight her brothers. This is no playground leadership issue. Again...low standards. She was even shown up by the 'smart kid'. Her sole solid position was her initial presentation and her position on EnergyDirect. I would have voted for her if she endured, but she really did lose credibility in the end. She actually undersold her skills on committees as a prior councillor. I think she lost her confidence under attack by 'boy wonder'.
Annette Main actually had a poor initial presentation. The problem was it was generic and boring. She did however recover in the impromptu questionnaire, and clearly has the most skill as a speaker, and the best leadership skills. She has abodes in Wanganui City and rural Wanganui, she owns a business, she manages the city market, and has a lot of connections in the City. She has a lot of committee and regional government experience. She did not really faulter. She did not have the personality of any of the other candidates, but that might come with more confidence, and I see it as less important. The most important issue is economic management, and as 'boy wonder' noted, Philippa is 'off-track' promoting an expensive velodrome which will 'maybe' used by 50 new residents. Life prospective Olympians have much money to invest in Wanganui. Starved for cash, and such facilities will attract people for just a week a year. Silly idea. The 'boy wonder' had a good suggestion - an ice rink. Though I have no info on such facilities. It would be far cheaper to build. So 'boy wonder' is a smart kid.
Dot McKinnon is the other serious contender by virtue of her position as Deputy Mayor. The problem with her is that she is boring and inept. She has been a patsy for outgoing Michael Law. She has little understanding of the issues, when as Deputy Mayor, she ought to be the strongest of the speakers. She was saying 'training' was the key to increasing employment growth in Wanganui. Actually training will actually reduce the population because it will encourage skilled people to leave for higher incomes and opportunities elsewhere. Job creation or demand is the critical issue, so increasing services, and increasing promotion of this great city is the key. i.e. It is about attracting foreigners and city people with money. The lifestylers like authors and early retirees are the key, including those internet savvy business operators from abroad who can earn USDs. Training = emigration to Australia or Auckland. She lack of market realism reminds me of those annoying bureaucrats. She reminds me of Kevin Rudd. Uninspiring!

In conclusion, I am worried that Annette Main is a 'soft' humanist, however I think she is the most promising person, with a lot of capable people behind her.
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Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Performance of Wanganui Mayor NZ

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Michael Laws is a rather high profile mayor in NZ. Mostly it is because of his antics. It always gets a lot of national attention, as well as derision. His conservatism is popular with the retirees in Wanganui I suspect. But let's look at his performance. The council rates are increasing by 4.5% in 2010/11. This seems most enough when you consider inflation, but one might ask why councils can't achieve cost reductions through efficiencies, particularly when we are talking about a rural region subject to steady population.
I think one of the biggest opportunities for saving public money is by adopting a per volume cost for water usage. I note the impact of free water on the community. My neighbour said 'Andrew, don't worry about wasting water, its free'. I replied 'nothing is free', someone always pays. The reality is that Wanganui water is expensive because it is derived from bores as opposed to regulated dam storage. The implication is that if there was an increase in population, we would need to develop more boring capacity. I note that the council recently developed new boring capacity to substitute for the failed no. 1 bore. It should have simply adopted a pro-rata pricing of water. Now, this might be harder than it sounds, i.e. Maybe the water in NZ is unmetered. I guess, unlike Australia, they are so accustomed to having free water. Even so, even if usage was collectively based on the premise of 'user pays', it might still have some effect, even if weaker. i.e. My neighbour would be less inclined to say 'its free', knowing that collectively I was paying more because of his actions.
Another big mistake is for Wanganui Council to have paid $20 million (my understanding) for Wanganui Gas. This utility is a legacy of the old electricity and gas board days. By buying the balance of the utility from its JV partner, it is exposing rate payers to commercial risks which we don't need. Consider for starters that the industry is undergoing consolidation. How is its retail arm 'Energy Direct' going to compete with the full service providers. I might add that the window of opportunity to sell this utility is dying. Consider that the ratio of residential to industrial gas prices in NZ are the highest in the world- even higher than statist Japan, where consumers always get a bad deal. Literally slaves to the state. NZ residential gas prices based on last years prices are 10x greater than the prices for utilities. The reason of course is that the NZ privatisation scheme was a sham, and the very uncompetitive regime for gas and electricity in NZ. Consider that consumers are baying full price for electricity, when most capacity is operated at almost zero cost. Water is free, and no fuel cost. Markets demand you pay the marginal price, which is the cost of high-cost wind, also near-free to operate, but costly to install. The implication is that if some person decided to commission a 600MW power plant, prices could halve, and the utilities would still make a great profit. The current regime is huge profits for the utilities, as well as government, and it raises the question of whether the utilities have paid huge kickbacks to secret bank accounts in Switzerland in order to structure 'deals' like these. Hard to say if its incompetence or corruption. There is a fine line between stupidity and deceit.
It ought to be apparent though that Wanganui Council has on benefit to derive from being in the industry given that the returns are never going to be greater. Get out why you can! Coal seam gas would erode their profitability when developed in the Waikato Basin, greater convergence can be expected, etc. There is better ways to attract jobs that by propping up historical practices.
It is apparent that the council is creating a problem of future unfunded liabilities by underspending on the maintenance of public infrastructure. These problems or cost items will not disappear, which means that the Council is moderating rate increases by increasing future contingencies. I am a believer in very small government, so the idea of a local government having $84 million in debt is ridiculous, particularly one which cannot attract people (i.e. rate payers). Worse still is the fact that they project it will increase to $96 million before falling. Who can know that is reasonable - that the debt will fall to $66mil in 2018/19? Are they projecting a population explosion to justify it, or an increase in future rates? Hard to see if this is possible if they are pushing capital outlays into the future.
Laws makes the argument that Wanganui will be among the 'elite' group of 16 councils (of 73) able to reduce debt in this period. This says nothing since Wanganui is among the few councils likely to be forecasting stagnant population growth. i.e. No capital expenditure demands. Such 'relativist' statements are therefore misleading.
I do think the council is doing a good job improving the visual appeal of the city. This will attract tourism, and improve property prices. Wanganui is a great place to live, and I also support their desire to improve the negative perception of Wanganui. People seem to think this town is overrun by gangs. I have yet to see any gang activity in the year I have lived here. Not seen a gang member at all, and we live close to hot spots of trouble. Maybe this is the result of the anti-crime initiatives, because I must say in the first 8 months of living here, I was seeing a police car every day. Now its once a week.
I also appreciate the opportunity the council has given to make public submissions. Not a believer in representative democracy, but better than nothing. No accountability, so its one-sided representation. What is the point of disclosure if you have no recourse for 3-4 years; and that recourse is zilch in comparison to the rest of the unthinking electorate.

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