Finally media awareness of Auckland volcanic threat

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This is the third time we have written about the threat posed by a volcanic eruption in the Auckland Volcanic Field, that underpins much of Auckland City, New Zealand. We first wrote about it in March 2013, then again in April 2013, and again in this article. Finally, today, the NZ Herald has decided to write about the issue, which is critical, not just to alert people, but for government to actually take steps to avert castastrophe. What people need to consider is:
1. There is no reason not to expect another eruption. They have been so periodic that it gives high causal justification to expect another at some point.
2. Volcanic eruptions when they underlie or adjoin a city pose a huge disruptive force; far more catastrophic than earthquakes.

The reason why this is so is because:
1. The sonic blast from the volcano is going to shower the city, or parts of the city with rock debris, killing people, destroying a lot of popular. The impact would be akin to an earthquake. Less damage to the structural integrity of buildings, but more damage to their cladding/facade.
2. The volcaniclastic material and dust will blanket the city. The implication is that it will be a huge disruption to the city. Compared to an earthquake, where the people can get on with their lives within a week, i.e. Businesses can keep going, if they are psychologically prepared, and where there is relatively less disruption to transport, and only 'certain zones' are affected. Widespread dust will stop everything. Its akin to a snow storm; and even if you move the dust, it will wash back with rain. It will be redistributed by train. In contrast, an earthquake spreads no debris, aside from liquefaction (sand) along fault lines, and often it does not even rupture land/highways, so its simply undermining buildings/foundations in certain zones. It was rather unlucky that the central CBD of Christchurch was even hit. The other issue was the 'shallowness' and 'intensity' of the quake, and the fact that Christchurch was not designed for such events. i.e. It had many relict 'brittle' structures. In contrast, Japanese earthquakes are 80-100km deep, the earth 'rolls' and buildings sway accordingly.

Now, the good news is that it might not be central to Auckland, but rather on the fringes, so having less effect, and possibly not blocking major transport corridors. It might be a relatively small eruption with insubstantial dust. The win has a good chance of carrying the dust out to see, and strong wins will serve to disperse the dust further afield...though for a major eruption, that could actually be a problem. A greater problem is perhaps that there is no precedent for this event. It has no modern comparison. It will be not as severe as the Pompeii (Italy 11th Century?) or the Mt Pinotubo eruption in 1984 (with its 11 feet of ash). These are different styles of eruption. So, we are really in the dark as to the precise nature, however much can be garnered from exposed ash deposits. After all, that's how they are able to calculate the historical significance of these fields. NZ is one of the few countries to build a city on a volcanic field. I'm not aware of any other, aside from Iceland, where the entire island is a volcano. Even then, its not so much an explosive style of eruptive volcano, but generally a non-viscosity, fission-style type of eruption.

Now, in commercial terms, you generally build infrastructure with a 20-40 year life. So it might make sense to build a city on a volcanic field. Sadly, that concession only works if the eruption is after your 40 year project life. You might otherwise feel a bit jaded if you did not take a threat to your property seriously if you'd just made improvements to your property and then an eruption occurred weeks or a year later...even 5 years. The reality however that, its not so much a problem of infrastructure loss as:
1. Looting and vandalism in the wake of it, as you flee for safety
2. Destruction of gardens, external façade, windows
3. Damage to internal windows. Recognise that there will probably not be materials to board up your house windows, if that will even make a difference. It will depend on the size of the blast and your proximity to an unknown centre within the field, or close to it.

It becomes apparent that Auckland will be disrupted for several months. Food will need to be flown in until arteries are cleared. Rain will play havoc with that. It will be a different, even unique type of emergency.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Redefining the way New Zealanders think

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John Key might be a bit "queasy" but at least he has some sound thinkers on his advisory committee, with plans to radically overhaul welfare. The challenge for him is to incentivise welfare, such that people have a vested interest in working. The problem has always been:

1. The ease with which people can pretend to be working in order to get the payment they want.

2. The higher cost of providing the intervention needed to ensure they are looking for work, or are indeed prepared to perform it. i.e. Adquately trained.

3. The inability of governments to provide 'productive work' and complaints when they would have to displace 'real' jobs undertaken by people employed under standard arrangements.

The Australian scheme suffered because people would just do their minimal 2 job interviews a day, not really caring if they got the job or not. The other problem is ensuring that there is jobs at the end of the training or welfare 'conditionality' clause, which is what really provides the incentive to work. Not tried, is the prospect of engaging with these unemployed...selling the idea that working is actually good for them. Too many are disillusioned, and too many bosses have a short fuse for disillusioned workers with an attitude.

The demand side is the most difficult side to address. The problem is that NZ is at the end of the world. It is difficult to attract investment here. NZ has to find something the rest of the world wants. I have several suggestions:

1. Drop the minimum wage - you have to earn a wage - an attempt to short up wages only creates unemployment

2. Wage differentiation between a 'recession wage' and bonuses retained by employer trust fund for bad times, to help the country build savings. I actually don't like the idea of government intervention in people's income, but in the context of current problems, people need to be encouraged to support themselves. The NZ economy is not doing that, so people need to be encouraged to save. Better if people are individually incentivised, so they take responsibility. i.e. They are required to save their pension until they have a surplus above minimum, thereafter they spend their money as they will.

3. Immigration - I am not a fan of governments using immigration to stimulate economic activity, but NZ needs growth, so siphoning off some of the better-skilled Asians is probably a good idea, at least until the nation's population reaches 8-10mil. i.e. Double current numbers. We all love contemporary NZ as a place to visit...what about escalating it to a place we want to live. Of course greater integration with Australia effectively will help, so the required number could be considerably smaller.

4. Oil discovery - The NZ government ought to be offering subsidises for NZ oil explorers to go out and find oil in its vast offshore basins.

5. Social reconciliation - The problem in democracy is that there is no effective reconciliation of interests. People are able to delude themselves, to retain a self-righteous vested interest group and lobby govt. No respect for facts. Its all about influence. There are people like the animal rights groups who need to be challenged. Parliament needs to be opened up and accountable to meritocrats in the community. At the moment, parliamentarians are as accountable as welfare recipients. I would argue they are honorised welfare recipients at the moment, except they receive it as extortion of taxpayers rather than as a passive recipient of 'entitlements'.

6. Redefine Christchurch as a 'modern city' rather than attempting to 'prop up' its stilted old buildings, only to see them fall over with the next earthquake. Use modern design to create a futuristic city, and at the same time build innovative products that can be exported around the world. We no longer need big homes if we are living in public spaces. Find new economic ways of living, commuting and develop those schemes. Make eco-living an affordable and sensible concept so NZ can absorb 10mil people, and gain the respect of the world. Do that for Christchurch and people will want to live there, irrespective of the earthquake. I would allow Japanese companies who have already designed such schemes to come in and develop a 'mini-Japan' for Japanese retirees. This could be the basis of a free trade agreement with the Japanese, giving NZ'ers the opportunity to live and work in Japan.

There are too many NZ'ers living in a delusional world of government support, and these people are sanctioned by taxpayers who stand too readily to indulge their every indulgence and hard luck story. The fact that people were hurt by the earthquake is a testament to their unpreparedness for life. Those better NZ'ers need to require more of the 'other half' lest this country stays a nation of parasites. I know a number of aspirational New Zealanders overseas and they convey the psyche of parasites, manipulators and con men. Its the welfare mentality permeating this nation. A Christian-socialistic-collectivist culture that needs to be eliminated. A nation of perpetrators and victims, but always with a delusional smile. They can endlessly drop their expectations or standards, but at the end of the day...someone is going to pay. The brain drain is the inevitable result of the moral discourse in this country. Is John Key brave enough to confront it. On two levels, one is inclined to think he is:

1. He came out critical of those on welfare....I hope to does retain a level of engagement with welfare recipients....not a detached, self-righteousness. They do have legitimate issues, i.e. There are few jobs.

2. He has embraced the need for welfare reform.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Photos of Christchurch at its best and worst

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Interested in seeing some photos of the Christchurch historic buildings before and after; take a look at these photos. It must be acknowledged that these buildings appear to be only superficially damaged. The problem is the structural integrity might be compromised. It was a very shallow earthquake, only 10km from the city centre. It could not have been much worse because the earthquake occurred during the day, so there is probably 300-odd people dead. It would have been worse perhaps if it was not lunchtime. If it was nighttime, maybe only 30 people would have been killed. It was very unlikely to have a direct hit on the city centre like this. It is unlikely to get any worse....unless Wellington is next. That would be truly dire....though I would not miss the destruction of the NZ parliamentary building...preferably when it is sitting. Sadly, NZ has not been been having much luck lately.

Anyone retaining some sense of loyalty to their political masters ought to reflect on:

1. Their lack of accountability

2. Their capacity to extort wealth from people

3. Their lack of principles

4. Their lack of honesty

I must say, I am far more impressed by leaders in local government. The mayor of Christchurch does a far better job. Might that be because local government leaders are less able to side-step issues; or maybe its because people are not forced to 'choose', so each vote becomes more real. Or maybe its because their taxing powers are much more restricted. In any respect, its not a desirable system....and a spin off from the main game. Want a conception for a better NZ - consider this blog.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

NZ needs new centres of growth

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Following the earthquake, in an interview with John Campbell, Mark Quigley, GNS spokesperson, made a very public and political solicitation for funds for research. He said this is 'fundamental science', actually it is applied science, and I'm not even sure it would have helped. The reality is that the GNS might never have an accurate model for the sub-surface. I suspect for it to develop an accurate model, it would need to drill a great number of holes several kilometres into the earth to place sensors in the ground to measure movement at different places. This does not seem feasible - principally for the fact that the 'active' geological terrain in question might comprise a great many slivers of crust with a succession of faults absorbing or releasing the stresses, so picking when and where the stresses are going to be released does not strike me as easy science.

Although it may well be sensible to increase the budget for GNS, I actually think the government needs to do some other things, including adoption of the following policies:

1. Ensure all new construction in Christchurch is earthquake-resistant. I have no idea whether the existing standards are adequate. Probably they are, and if not, then the assistance of the Japanese will probably help.

2. Adopt a 'slow-growth' model for Christchurch

3. Adopt measures to diversify NZ's population away from Christchurch by moving government jobs. The reason for this is that Christchurch might well be passing through a 300 year period of 'geological activism'. You do not want your 2nd largest, fastest growth city exposed to such destructive potential. Decentralising government jobs is the best way to create new cities. Oh course there is too much investment in Christchurch to abandon it, but this ought to be a long term strategy.

4. Develop new cities around existing infrastructure in Invercargill and somewhere like Motoeku (near Nelson). Of course port facilities will be critical to such a city. The South of the South Island already needs a new airport to handle tourism I believe. Queenstown is 6 hours from Christchurch, and its a hub for international tourism. There is a need for a larger regional international airport to service Dunedin, Invercargill, Queenstown and Wanaka. This is a good way of kickstarting such decentralisation.

NZ needs to think about whether it should rebuild Christchurch or scale back. Of course, NZ is not the only country to have earthquakes. San Francisco is built on the San Andreas Fault. Japan is subject to faulting, etc.

The difference is that Japan is pretty unstable regardless; and Tokyo was already well constructed, since it experienced a bad earthquake - the Great Kanto Earthquake - many years ago (1923). The difference is that Christchurch has a choice. There are areas in NZ which are a lot more stable than others, and diversification makes sense. Its not a divestment, but a shift in priorities and focus. The same can be said of Wellington. But that is a 'bureaucrat city', so its prone to gentrify anyway. Governments are naturally very good at killing things.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Christchurch in crisis - 2nd earthquake

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Christchurch is currently the scene of a crisis. The GNS are trying to forcecast the next earthquakes and where. I would suggest that is optimistic. Geological processes on Earth have been acting for billions of years. Modern Man has been occupying this planet and recording these events for just 3000 years. Even then the quality of the seismic record is just 100 years old. They are forecasting in the dark. NZ has only been settled by Europeans for 200 years.

NZ's South Island lies on a strike-slip fault when extends right along the island. There will be ongoing releases of stress along that structure, which is not a single fault, but a system of parallel and sub-parallel structures, each with their own stress characteristics.

Earthquakes are of course brittle (shallow) or semi-ductile (deeper) releases of those cumulative stresses. The most exposed or vulnerable areas are those areas on deep sedimentary piles, because they will oscillate when the earthquake hits. Clearly a major stress release carries the prospect of ancillary stress, or may even facilitate ongoing primary stress release. There is no way of knowing given that the stresses would need to be measured under the sedimentary pile.

Many people are disillusioned with the uncertainty of living in Christchurch. The future of the city is in jeopardy. Life in NZ is already difficult with the recession and lack of business investment. It does not help that the only investment is replacing the capital investment destroyed. Other parts of the country will also feel the implications. The bad news is:

1. The loss of business as a result of the clean up and restoration of services

2. Loss of tourism as the prospect of more earthquakes remains

3. Loss of students who decide not to continue their education in NZ, and instead go to Australia, i.e. 23 Japanese students are currently still trapped in their school (I believe??)

4. Many of Christchurch's residents will leave the city. I suspect many of them will go to Australia for higher earnings, and to escape the threat. Australia seldom experiences earthquakes. Its a very large, stable continental craton. Having said that the Newcastle earthquake 15 years ago did a lot of damage. The threats there are around Camden (NSW) and Kalgoorlie (WA). So a small prospect of threat for such a large country, and the threat is subdued. NZ'ers leaving will have flow-on effects for the country. The destruction of come of Christchurch's oldest historic buildings is very sad.

The only good news is the hit to the NZD. NZ exports 95% of its commodity production, so this spells stronger capital inflows for the city. There has been thousands of after-shocks since the initial earthquake in Sept 2010. This one is not as strong as the last, but it struck the centre of the city. It has destabilised a lot of buildings.

The bad news is that the geological stresses released along the fault zone will create new stresses along the fault zone. The good news is that there are no other large cities on the Canterbury Plain....that is good news. You might not extent more bad news. I think this is as bad as it will get. After tremours will likely be in different areas, i.e. in the suburbs. The problem is the weakening of already weakened structures. So there will need to be a lot of demolition.

The other great risk for NZ is the threat of an earthquake in Wellington, which is far along the same fault system. Wellington is not as vulnerable though because its sedimentary pile is very shallow; or non-existent, since many people are living on bedrock (i.e. hill sides). The greater threat is earth slips in the case of Wellington, whereas in Christchurch it was the tremours and liquefaction of the unconsolidated, saturated sediments near the surface.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Should the Pike River mine have been developed?

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In the wake of the 2nd explosion at the Pike River Mine, we might ask whether the mine ought to have been developed, and in the wake of the explosion, whether it ought to be re-opened. I have a number of reasons for thinking that:

1. The mine ought not have been developed the way it was.

2. The mine ought to be re-opened subject to certain conditions

Should the mine have been developed.

The problem with how the mine was developed was the lack of consideration given to the high methane gas content in the coal. The reasons for ignoring or downplaying the gas content was:

1. Surface drilling to extract the gas would have required the development of roads to get drill rigs in, as well as pipe infrastructure. The gas could have been used in Greymouth, but that would have required a power station. It is doubtful that a coal seam gas power station would offer favourable availability factors given the discontinuous nature of probably gas supplies. It would have necessitated electricity supplies anyway, i.e. It would require spending more money. It therefore did not make sense to extract the gas. The other reasons for not extracting gas from the surface is the pristine forests in the region, and the ruggedness of the terrain. Clearly, coal seam gas extraction would have prevented this project from being developed.

2. Underground drilling to extract gas and pipe it out of the development heading was another option. This was less commercially appealing because you are not drilling the whole field; only those areas accessible from the development heading and ancillary tunnels. The coal seam methane extraction/drilling would also interfere with coal development; so this is even less viable than surface drilling to drain the gas out.

Mines in Queensland which have high methane concentrations have the methane drained from the coal prior to recovery as a matter of routine. e.g. Moura Coal Mine being a case in point.

Should the mine be re-opened?

It is easy enough to re-open the mine. The question is whether it ought to be. Logic would suggest that a mine explosion might happen again. The reality is that the mine should not be opened for a number of reasons:

1. High manning level - the mine operates using less mechanised methods of mining which exposes more labour to any explosion, compared to say longwall mining operations.

2. Difficult access - the difficulty getting access to the coal seams to drain the methane makes this a difficult task, raising opposition from the green groups.

3. Value of the coal - The coal is not critical to local industry. It is solely exported to foreign countries. It is valuable, however it might be best left where it is. Shareholders have lost all wealth; there is little to recoup from redeveloping the mine. NZ Oil & Gas was the largest shareholder. It las lost most of its investment...maybe it ought to stay lost.

4. Industry value - The coal industry is important to Greymouth. The reality is that this is one mine. Maybe the industry would be better off developing a coal seam gas extraction industry. Clearly this ought to be done solely on a scale to supply electricity to the local communities through existing electricity transmission networks. There are still several surface coal mines in the area which will continue to operate. They present no significant risk to life.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Natural disaster risk in NZ - volcanoes and earthquakes

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Want to know the risks and latest natural disaster news in New Zealand. Perhaps the best website to visit is the one maintained by GeoNet.

There is a range of information you can obtain from this site. Perhaps the most important is:

1. The location of the most recent earthquakes - the pattern might give you a sense of the risk you are taking buying a house. The risk does not need to preclude buying a house, but simply managing the risk on a local scale, i.e. Avoiding sandy, low-lying flats subject to liquefaction, river plains subject to fault-induced flooding, cliff lines subject to collapse. You would want to make sure you are covered for earthquake damage if you are just about to buy a house in a 'quake-vulnerable' area.

2. The location of historical earthquakes - to give you an idea of what is possible.

3. List of earthquakes in your area - you can get a details picture of the earthquakes in the area you define, over the time period you define.

4. The characteristics of NZ quakes - this page will give you a basic overview of the nature of NZ earthquakes.

Volcanic eruption risk

There are also hazards posed by volcanic eruptions in NZ, so you will want to be aware of the risks posed by these. Eruptions can happen as frequently as every 10 years, or more typically every 300-400 years. Some volcanoes like Mauna Loa in Hawaii erupt every year and the eruption can continue for months. The only active volcanoes in NZ extend from Mt Ruepehu to White Island on the North Island. The volcanoes occur in the Taupo Volcanic Zone, which extends into the Bay of Plenty. For more information, refer to the following sources

1. List of NZ's active volcanoes. This page provides a geographic reference as well as information on the current level of volcanic activity. i.e. There is an alert level for different levels of activity. You can also correlate the level of localised earthquakes which often relate to movement of subterranean molten rock. i.e. Often an escalation of such activity is a precursor to a volcanic eruption.

2. The risks posed by volcanoes: Volcanic eruptions can eject water, rock and ask into the atmosphere, which can fall on nearby and distant regions. Most of the ash will fall down-wind on the days of the active emissions. The force and point of ejection will also matter. Some eruptions occur from a side vent, often due to a collapse of the volcano. e.g. Mt St Helens in the USA. The eruption of lava is less common, but a real risk. The greatest risk comes from volcaniclastic and lahar mudflows, as ash mixes with snow melt and the rainfall caused by ash clouds raising water droplet nucleation rates in the atmosphere, which encourages rainfall, flooding and mud-sponsors damage to settlement in river valleys. The ash cloud does not simply go up, but blows out from the flanks of the volcano in the direction of the eruption, and of course is influenced by the wind direction.

Tsunamis in NZ

I would be less concerned by tsunamis in NZ. The greatest risks are on the north and southern extremities of the archipelago, as well as the Pacific 'east' coast. The risk on the west coast is far low. There are tsunami warning stations in NZ. For more information refer to GeoNet. The risk posed is of course on the lowest-lying coastlines.

Rock falls

Earthquakes, high rainfall, frost-thaw and volcanic eruptions can cause rock falls or land slides. Be careful to avoid driving past such hazards in such times of active earthquakes. Rocks are more inclined to dislodge at night due to contraction. Rock falls which block rivers can also cause flooding, however the prospect of this is less of a threat.

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Author: Andrew Sheldon

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