Auckland - live in fear - Rangitoto volcanic eruption

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Popular wisdom is that the two recent volcanic eruptions that struck Auckland, NZ's largest city are nothing to fear. I would care to differ for two reasons:
1. You cannot trust governments to tell you anything or to identify and act on any substantive evidence. Recent examples include the Christchurch earthquake, where a city engineer who warned about the risks of an earthquake was ignored.
2. The other example being the Tohoku tsunami where the people were lied to about the details of the risks posed by nuclear meltdown.

There are some 49 volcanic centres in close proximity to Greater Auckland City. If you want to get a sense of just how close those volcanoes are - you need only look at the maps in the following city report. Remember however subsequent eruptions will unlikely be associated with prior structures. They do however occur in clusters, and Greater Auckland City is a 'cluster'.

The fact that there were two earthquakes in Auckland is not important. They were closely related spatially and chronologically, so they could be considered as giving stress relief to different parts of the lithologic units. What is important is the shallow depth; the lack of alternate explanation, and the nature of Auckland's style of volcanism. By no means is Auckland's style of volcanism particularly severe, but consider that:
1. Volcanism is a threat under-estimated by people. Even a small eruption in the vicinity of a major city is going to be very serious. Far more serious than the Christchurch earthquake.
2. This style of volcanism occurs without warning - hourse compared to months for a volcanic arc eruption

Maori folk stories spoke of historic volcanic eruptions. The difference is that Maoris had no infrastructure to be destroyed, nor did they themselves have much exposure to these events, as they themselves have been in NZ for just a short time, so the land was relatively unpopulated. So what do we need to know about this form of volcanism:
1. Earthquakes can result from tensional release, i.e. Redistribution of lateral stresses
2. Inflation of volcanic plume or their deflation, i.e. Vertical stresses
3. Hydrostatic loading or unloading, i.e. The filling of a dam or its water loss in drought

Auckland is not on a major global fault. It is possible that residual stresses from movements on those faults is causing secondary earthquakes around local volcanies. There is the possibility that the drought has reduced vertical hydrostatic loading around Auckland, and this has caused earthquakes. My personal opinion is that this is not likely the case because there don't appear to be any large water storages around Auckland. I went looking but the information is not readily available.

This style of volcanism is well-documented for Auckland by GNS (Geological NZ Survey). These eruptions start with melting in the upper crust as a result of hot spot magma intrusion. Partial melting in the upper crust will result in the creation of a plume at depths. The heat from the plume will effectively drill its way through the crust until such a time as the plume is able to take advantage of its inherent force, i.e. when the magmatic pressure equals the load pressure. i.e. The plume will reach a level in the crust where it will be able to intrude a long structural weaknesses. GNS says that once a line of weakness is developed, these fluid magmas can rise at a rate of 5kms per hour. This seems hard to believe (even for me), but don't under-estimate the explosivity of these eruptions. The other problem is just how undocumented these eruptions are. You might expect some type of sonic blast when they occur, and the formation of a crater. As the blast pressure wave reaches the surface there will be a lateral blast as the force blows out material. This is because from about 300-500 metres depth the confining pressure will drop off immensely, so any near-surface planes of weakness will be exploited. This makes the earthquake more dangerous to you. This is particular so if you live in a house with a lot of glass windows. Expect them to be shattered.

What are the risks according to the government?

They list them as "ash falls, ballistic rock falls, cone-sector collapse, pyroclastic flows and surges, debris flows, lava flows and domes, lahars, volcanic gases, volcanic earthquakes, tsunami and seiches, hydrothermal blasts, and atmospheric effects. Many of these phenomena will only affect an area on the volcano or a few kilometres from the volcano. However, volcanic ash fall can be deposited hundreds to thousands of kilometres from its source, making it the product most likely to affect the largest area and greatest number of people. Volcanic ash can seriously affect aircraft that may fly unintentionally through the ash cloud, often many kilometres from the volcano".

The good news is that these earthquakes might not be signalling an eruption. i.e. The earthquakes might in fact be signalling a deflation of the volcanic hot spot. There is however no reason to expect this, and more reason to expect any waning of activity to be associated with stress release. Where was that release? Only unloading from surface reservoirs. This seems unlikely. Another big issue for Auckland is the location of these earthquakes. The last recorded earthquake in NZ was 600 years ago. This centre actually erupted twice - its on Rangitoto Island, offshore from Auckland City. That is scary because it establishes a geospatial link to past volcanism. If you look at the ages of volcanic activity on Figure 2 its apparent that these earthquakes are associated with the general area of the last eruption. We need to consider that Waitemata Harbour might be concealing a history of volcanism that we don't know about. Importantly, the proximity of the harbour poses the risk of a mini-tsunami for Auckland's North Shore and city coastline.

I went looking for heat flow data which might suggest that there is no 'immediate' heat event. But actually there is compelling evidence that the intensity of volcanic activity is increasing - read the quote below. This might relate to the fact that volcanism is offshore, in the process resulting in sub-surface mixing of seawater and magma, resulting in greater eruption explosivity.

"The area covered by each volcanic centre is generally localised (less than a kilometre across) and the total volume of erupted material is small. However, five of the volcanoes (Mt Mangere, One Tree Hill, Three Kings, Mt Eden and Mt Wellington) are of medium size. The largest, Rangitoto, is an exceptionally large volcano for the field, representing 59% of the total volume of erupted material. It is significant that the five medium-sized eruptions occurred between 20,000 to 10,000 years ago and that the largest eruption was only about 600 years ago". 

So the latest recorded volcanic eruption from NZ was the most explosive. I suggest because it was offshore, but it might also point to an escalation of heat. This is not to say that the eruption is imminent but that it is probably a risky decision to live in Auckland; most particularly the North Shore and Waitamata Harbour side. A cluster of volcanic earthquakes is clearly a sign of greater volcanic intensity given the relatively active nature of the Auckland field. I say people - be careful. Governments will minimalise the risk because they will want to preserve economic activity. They will not want to displace a million people. Personally, I'd be crying out for heat flow data which I can't find online, and I'd be really keen to watch future earthquake activity around Auckland City...particularly I'd be interested in the location of that activity, whether it was around Rangitoto Island, or whether its associated with faults in that area. The drought might actually be accentuating  the risk by 'unloading' confining pressure, but I'm inclined to think not given the high rainfall of Auckland, the small size of the city, and the fact that I can not locate the reservoirs. Surface storages and even the confining pressure of the crust are relatively weak counterforces in geology. I remind you to not under-estimate the force of the earth's mantle. The thickness of the crust is just 30km; the interior is 6400 kms in radius. That thin crust gets a bit precarious when molten magma 1300 deg C has already reached 5km depth and is seeking structural weaknesses to make its way to the surface.

There might be a reason there is no 'oral record' left by Maori. It might be because they were all killed by these eruptions. No written records is another explanation, and possibly the low population of the region. In any respect, you have the good fortune of more forewarning....but I caution you...more information is required on heat flow...and if you don't have the discretion to leave Auckland, then you might want more seismic/earthquake evidence. Read the following report to better understand what you are dealing with. Don't trust your government!! Well, you might watch to see if your local MP is spending less time in your (Auckland) electorate. Actually, no, just don't trust their faith. Follow the evidence...like the people of Christchurch didn't. Remember volcanoes can be more dangerous in many respects than earthquakes. They are different. Read this report to better understand the nature of what you are dealing with. Australia just started looking a little better. Here is a little history on Rangitoto Island - but no heat flow data!!!!!! Here is another warning from 'volcano watchers':

"Future vent forming eruptions will very likely occur within the city limits or its outskirts, allowing few mitigation or preparation options. Scientists agreed that residents of Auckland may get only a day or two warning of a volcanic eruption and will only know hours before where it will explode on the surface".

Was yesterday's earthquake a warning? Yes and no. We are looking for a pattern of earthquake activity. We already have a geospatial point of correlation. The question is what is the cause? Inflation or deflation. Heat flow will tell us. Is government keeping this information from us? Interestingly, if you look at this map of NZ, it is evident that NZ has a 'dog leg' in its stress relief. This is an interesting issue which might foretell future tectonism. Tension 'gashes' or faults might be opening up which are facilitating the higher degree of volcanism we are seeing. Remember that the subduction to the east is already creating an area of high heat flow (resulting from deep-seated melting) and lithospheric bending (brittle fracture) along this purple line of weakness. Is there going to be a change in regional tectonism. These developments will take millions of years. But the opening up of tectonic 'gashes' might well be imminent.

Here is a very realistic description of the threat posed by a volcano eruption in Auckland. It gives you a clue as to what you can do in the case of an earthquake. The threat is broadly greater if you are detached from your kids because they are subject to others guardianship at school. Yes, bureaucrats who need to follow government rules. So what do you do:
1. Get to a concrete building (preferably having already identified a 'sponsor' or a few in case of non-availability). Avoid any room where there is windows as there is going to be a 'sonic' or basal blast of volcaniclastic material.
2. Avoid near-shore environments. If near Waitamata Harbour, a likely epicentre, ensure you rise to a 3-4th floor in the concrete apartment so that you will not be swamped in any mini-tsunami.
You will want these places to be within a few blocks of your home. Identify them at home and at work. Toilets are great because they are small rooms with small windows. If in glazed rooms, you will need to wrap yourself in towels, or hang towels over the window might help.
How will you know to do this? Personally; I have no idea. Good to do around the time of an earthquake, but you might not even feel it. Worst still you might not see anything (at night) until the incident has passed. You are most likely going to be killed by the basal surge shattering all the glass windows in your building. You might want to pre-order your glazing and store the glass in the basement. There might be a supply shortage in future. The other problem is food & water, but these are lesser problems because the dust is readily cleared and the infrastructure is hardly going to be damaged. Its a risk of people losing lots of blood from being punctuated by a lot of glass.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

NZ net immigration numbers

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Have you been wondering why Kiwis living moving abroad has come to an abrupt halt. I can think of several reasons:

1. The earthquake threat has waned. There are a few 4+ earthquakes; but after a 6+ magnitude quakes, anything less starts to look commonplace; particularly after you realise that all the weakly constructed buildings have fallen; and that anything which posed a threat to life was probably in the CBD. Why? Most houses are made of wooden construction or are single floor dwellings. The greatest threat is probably the old brick chimneys.

2. The strong commodity prices are falling back as punters take their money off the table. These falls have yet to take their toll on the NZ rural market, nor the currency. In any respect, these revenues tend to be protected by corresponding falls in commodity prices. They do however provide a window to buy new machinery offshore. The fact remains, the important agricultural business activity in NZ is going to be doing ok.

3. The World Cup - Who is going to be going overseas during the World Cup - unless you are leasing out your house for $3000/month.

4. Australian slump - The commodity price slide is likely to take the strength out of Australian markets, though it will recover. Nothing can keep them down; as lower commodities denominated in USD are offset by weakness in the AUD, which spared the local economy much impact, as long as volumes are maintained. Australia is closer to China and Asia, than Chile, Brazil and South Africa, so it tends to benefit on the volume side.

5. British visas for NZ'ers look like being severely restricted. Given the lack of business confidence in the UK, this is likely to be a bigger threat to existing UK residents than those contemplating going over. Thus we might expect a flood of Kiwis to return to NZ. This of course will mean more Kiwis going to Australia, given the relative strength of its economy.

6. Earthquake reconstruction - You might not want to live in Christchurch anymore, at least not for the lack of things to do, but consider that most of the 'earthquake threats' have been knocked over by the series of earthquakes, and anything new is going to be built to NZ standards. Japan has greater vulnerability to earthquakes, and has been living with them without much trauma. The tsunami threat was under-estimated or even ignored. A single governor in the north made provisions. In that city; they lost just one life. Praise to that critical, conceptual thinker who 'saw around corners' what others chose not to acknowledge. The reconstruction of Christchurch will become a source of employment over the next 5 years; the question is - will it attract new job hunters or result in higher home construction costs. My guess is the later.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Hostility towards Australians

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Kiwi hostilities towards Australians are deep-seated and they are not a recent development. The bitterness has come to the attention to Aussies here for the World Cup because the two nations are placed in a position of drinking, competitiveness, and being placed next to each other at a game for several hours is likely to result in spitting, etc. The fact that it can happen to multiple people, and because the issue is 'timely' because of the disparity in treatment of Australians, we might expect the media to comment. But my experience tells me that there is deep-seated and long-term issues with NZ's collective self-esteem. Let me give you a flash back to when I first came to NZ in the 1990s.

Experience 1: Having just landed in Auckland, I made the mistake of presenting a $A10 instead of $NZ10 to the car park attendant. Yeh, you'd think I'd realise that I was in the wrong country, but they are so similar, it did just feel like I was in Australia, most particularly perhaps because I was in a mundane looking car park and tired. The response by the attendant was less than courteous. As if I had insulted her.

Experience 2: Talking to a NZ'er in a bar he was surprised that I had pleasant things to say about NZ...as if we were only negative about the place. I must admit to joking with an American about how backward Wellington was in 1990. Why? Because there were weatherboard homes next to the airport, and so close to the city. NZ cities are far more cosmopolitan now, and there are many more choices to go. And unlike at those times, you can now go out without people being polarised by the rugby....as if that was life. The reality is that...NZ is boring, quiet and 'undeveloped'. That is a point of derision if you appreciate the excitement, fun and choices of a big city. The feeling is the same if I fly from Tokyo to Sydney, my home town. NZ is more boring, and I can't even credit it with being different.

Experience 3: In the early 1990s I bought a Korean girlfriend to NZ. We went to a bar and joked at a bar that I needed to split my Australian and NZ coinage. I expected a barb of some type, and even set her up for it. I was surprised when her 'We expect that from Australians' was far more bitter than I expected. No mistake; she was adamant when I queried her. I wondered what I'd done to offend her. Two possibilities occurred to me at the time. (i) She was a racist and disliked that I had bought a Korean into their bar, (ii) She resents tourists because her local customers resent tourists, and I was an Australian, so that was worse. (iii) I failed on both issues.

Experience 4: I was listening to the radio when I heard some radio station play an advert with the advertiser saying 'Product on sale....come and get them before the Aussies do'. This was very funny to here, but clearly suggests even the advertisers see a deep-seated disdain for Australians they can use.

In the end, you just learn to shut up. They don't even know you're an Australian unless you tell them. Clearly not all NZ'ers are too proud to love Australians. My mother's boyfriend is NZ. He's a charming guy in NZ when I met him here, but so uptight in Australia.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

NZ - we steal your thunder

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As an Australian living in NZ for the last 3 years, I care little about rugby, but I know that my house would be vandalised if I placed a flag up for the World Cup - or for any other reason - if anyone even differentiated the flags. When I first arrived here, a Kiwi who's be living in London warned me that Kiwi's take criticism very personally. When I came for a holiday here a few years ago, and said how great the place is, a Kiwi was surprised, arguing that we could only say bad things about the place. I think Kiwi corporate advertisers do not help because they accentuate the vitriol, i..e One advertising campaign "Come and get (their products) before the Aussies".

I thought this funny, but wondered about how deeply-entrenched this loathing for Australians, because you would never see adverts like this in Australia. We look to the world, and we see opportunity.

Kiwis look to Australia, and see their relatives enjoying higher incomes, a better, sunnier life, and they hate us for it. There is nothing unique about it. The Canadians hate the Americans; the French hate the English, etc.

Our banks rip you off (like they rip Australians off), we take your workforce (after you paid for them), we are bigger, so we tend to get more attention for 'Down Under'.

It strikes me that NZ really needs to discover oil, so it can become a commercial centre of significance. It needs an ego boost to resolve its diminished self-esteem.

It does not help when John Key says he will close the gap with Australia.

The reality is that - the wage gap - or anything is not going to be closed until John Key kickstarts oil exploration and discovers the stuff.

Australia has some natural advantages which NZ simply cannot match - resources. There is $750 billion of planned investment in Australia - the solution is that - it should not define itself on the basis of Australia.

If they did, they would have to sacrifice their lifestyle like the Japanese - just to catch up with the Americans - and look how unhappy they are.

NZ has its own personal and unique context - it needs to set its own 'reasonable' standards....and forget about Australia. Stop making them the centre of your reality. You will always be the smaller brother, unless you want to change your values and import 50million immigrants. But then, you will not be NZ.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

John Key and suicide prevention

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A number of youth suicides in the Wairarapa region of New Zealand has raised fears of a possible 'mass teen suicide'. The government or police have of course discounted that possibility; though of course they would say that. We might wonder if there are any reasons for people to commit suicide. The simple answer is that - 'life is a value; and there is no value in death', and no prospect of 'turning it around'. The problem of course is that if you have a generalised state of disappointment for your disposition; this is going to manifest in some pretty tragic assessments of your future. What is a person to do, given that:

1. The poor state of education - Yes, John Key says NZ has the 4th best education system in the world. Yeh right, and what are you comparing NZ to---26 OECD countries with the same poor system? Academic relativism is not a very sound basis to assess an education system. Also consider the likely disconnect between wealthy private schools in the cities and rural schools with less aspirational cultures. i.e. Consider that Masterton, the location of this suicide 'pool' or 'pact' is a rural location, and you have some reason for youth to consider the quality of their preparation for life.

2. Job prospects - Here are kids who were probably itching to get a car, get their own job, escape autocrat parents; but they can't because they have no skills or job experience to get traction in the workforce, and even less hope of going to Australia.

3. Complete political denial - Of course we have government in an absolute state of denial; looking to cut costs rather than spend more money. Not that its solely about money; its about values, and pragmatic John Key is a man who can create a corporate spreadsheet, but he is not too good when it comes to personal psychology. Why would he, 'there's no money in it'. Don't expect any better from Labor.

4. Population stagnation: If you want to retain your party control of the economy, then you can't reasonably expect to have a monopoly. You at least need a pretense of choice - a 'two party democracy'. It seems to fool everyone. The price of centralised control of course is slow-paced decision-making. Universal suffrage makes it every harder because there are a lot of scared people in the country, and its easier for politicians to just pander to their every whim, rather than educating them. This kills productivity of course; so you have to look for 'artificial stimulus'. The problem for John Key is that Helen Clark already ran the economy into the ground, driving debt to the ceiling means the country can no longer 'pay it forward'; and no one wants to immigrate to NZ, so the debt per capita just keeps growing. It's a tough gig for a PM. Everyone keeps talking about Australia.

John, I'd get those constant voices checked out mate 'Australia's growth phenomenon', "Australia's growth prospects', 'Australia's $700 billion in planning mining investments'. I swear this is going to his head because he was utterly deluded this past week. In Wanganui, I swear he said NZ's growth was stronger than Australia's in this past quarter. Of course, Australia did have state-wide floods and softer metal prices, but it did not stop him from ignoring a decade of stronger economic data from Australia, and far better productivity. Way to go John!

But John is not a fool. He does listen. For over a year I have been constantly talking up the prospect of an oil discovery saving the country. Finally he is listening, and is encouraging oil exploration. Personally, I would be throwing $50 million a year of government money at grass roots exploration, and then placing all title in a state enterprise; and I'd be encouraging wealthy people to buy stock in projects floated off. Certainly, you don't want government owning such assets, but since there is a concept of 'national sovereignty', NZ may as well retain the value of such oil potential, rather than too readily surrender it to international and local executives, who just profit at the nation's expense. I think I know why these youths are killing themselves. Maybe they just didn't learn at school how to become an overpaid oil company executive. Kids today! They have such high expectations. In my day, we had to drill for our own water supply.

The good news is that - if NZ discovers a large pool of oil....in 20 years NZ might just have a $US1 trillion investment fund to spend up big time. That's a lot of money for 4mil people. Rest assured other people will love NZ a lot more by that time. We just tend to think positive thoughts. You know, like those thoughts for 'good governance' you have been having since the 1840s that never get answered. You know; those hopes that drove people to crusade for universal suffrage, allowing every idiot to vote.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Communications in NZ - a lack of competition

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One of the challenges of getting basic services in an uncompetitive, small market like NZ is that you have to contend with the proverbial 'carrot and stick' approach to market extortion. i.e. Market participants who put forward meaningless pricing plans with so many **** that you will probably pay double the stated rate. The implication is that you can spend your life investigating 'cheaper deals' which are nothing of the sought. In most countries such 'bait advertising' is disallowed, but because you have a ***, they get away with it, even though the price differentiation point is hardly an incidental pricing qualification, but rather a profoundly necessary cost you will have to bare. All the market players do it. The implication is that no pricing is real until you spend 1 hour investigating it.

In the telecommunications market, there are two dominant market players - Telecom and Vodafone. These two companies are famous for offering no real competition. i.e. They will offer you a 'special' of an extra 20Gb of broadband a month, as if that is of any value. After all, what are you going to do with that if your monthly need is just your contracted amount. They might offer you a teaser of a free wireless modem, even though wireless bandwidth is really expensive, and these little modems can be bought in China for $5. They sell them for $100 plus. 2 degrees is probably the cheapest, but try independent sellers.

You need internet in NZ, and because its rare to get free wifi in NZ, you really want a well-priced wireless solution if you are moving around. The problem is that you are stuck with these two majors. The only alternative is 2 degrees, which is confined to the 3 major cities and Queenstown. That is a very limited choice.

Outside the major cities you also need a landline telephone. You cannot just satisfy yourself with a ADSL connection. Vodafone offers such a plan but its very expensive. So you are stuck paying $110/month for a landline and ADSL for 20Gb, less in the cities because you don't need a telephone line rental.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Timing to buy in New Zealand

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Europeans, Americans and Japanese will love Queentown, NZ...well maybe you will hate the fact that there are already a lot of you already here. Its enough to ruin a place. :)

The good news is that you have a good reason to come to the land of 'milk and honey'.....your currencies are being debased faster than you can say 'Holy cow'. This is just one appealing aspect about NZ. It is a relatively hard currency.....and whilst income growth here is sluggish, that will change in i'd say around 5-10 years for a number of reasons related to resource development, but also its services-related potential. Yes, NZ is going to find a place in the business outsourcing arena, though it will have to improve its accent and telephony infrastructure. In the meantime, expect a currency gap to widen with Australia.

NZ does appeal. The population is flat...but that will change. This is why I think buying in 3-5 years time makes a lot of sense. All the better if you can debt leverage the property and perhaps spend your 'quiet' summers near before you retire here. Why? Well, summer is quiet here. You just have to decide if you like winter here. Given you are coming from Europe, Japan or the USA, you will struggle less with that question that if you are coming from Australia.

In 10 years, I think NZ's fortunes will turn around. I expect some major resource developments which are going to see a major change in the terms of trade, business investment, population retention, and currency ascension. Yep, and some government will take all the credit...when it was all me. Yes me. I was the one who pulled the lever first. I'm holding the smoking gun!

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Queenstown - magical place

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I was speaking to an Australian today...if you read this....sorry for cutting you off. I was tinkering around with Google at the time.

Anyway, there are a great number of Australians showing interest in NZ. I understand the appeal, but I must make the point that you don't know the place until you live here. I have lived here two years, and my advice is....do your research. Commonsense I know. There are things you will need to know. I think for most people the Queenstown region offers the greatest appeal even if you only buy an investment property here. The appeal might wear off if you experience a winter here....but then some of you like the snow.

I personally believe Queenstown airport will be used for domestic flights in future, and that there will be a centralised airport built around Gore to service Dunedin, Invercargill, Wanaka and Queenstown. These three centres are a significant distance from Christchurch, so they need a new airport. Queenstown is 6.5 hours from Christchurch. This area has a lot of appeal. The people here are more international, the shops and service are better. The rest of NZ (apart from Auckland) is held in a cultural vortex. Progressive minds leave....retirees enter and keep to themselves. Its a beautiful country...but like Australia it is dominated by idiots. I prefer to live in Japan where they are all saints because I don't understand them. You can however etch out your own existence here. There are plenty of bars, restaurants, walks, rides to provide a superficial and amusement-filled life. The infrequent gratuity goes a long way... and it will sustain you for a week of solitude. Sounds like paradise to me. :)

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Mobile broadband coverage in NZ

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Thinking about getting mobile broadband in NZ. You might want to check out the following map from Telecom NZ. I am not sure whether this inter-connects with Vodafone's network, so you might want to look at their coverage too. I think they are completely separate.

It is noteworthy however that coverage declines significantly in bad weather, or along the coast, so you might want to look at a fixed point broadband to the door.

I would suggest that mobile coverage is not so much the issue, as the expense of it. The capacity available for mobile broadband is highly restrictive (i.e. expensive). So the prospects of working from a campervan might be just a dream at this point....at least in NZ.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Plans for travelling to NZ in 2011

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CNN has identified NZ as the 2nd best place to be in 2011. The big reason for this might well be the relatively low NZD and the World Cup Rugby in September 2011. Mind you, travellers ought to note the high cost of travelling in NZ. For travellers, you might like to reflect upon some of the costs, which are particularly high in tourist meccas like Queenstown.

We offer you some cheaper ways to keep costs down:

1. Buying a car - You can pick up a really cheap car through Turner NZ auctions in a number of major cities. Visit their website first before you come. You can always sell the car before you leave through TradeMe. This might be harder if you have no registered address in NZ, so set up your TradeMe account before you buy. You will probably want to buy other things anyway. It makes sense to buy a car if you are here more than a month I suspect. I suggest buying a car with a 1.6-1.8L engine to reduce the cost of NZD1.98/litre petrol.

2. Rent a campervan - This spares you the expense of accommodation as well as flexibility and difficulties finding a hotel. NZ is a quiet place so its not too difficult to find a place to stay the nice. Just make sure you park where there are toilets. Campervans are cheap in NZ because there is a lot of competition. If you need to get back to an airport for a flight out, consider www.standbycars.com for a nominally priced campavan return.

3. Buy all your food in Countdown and New World supermarkets. Restrict yourself to the token coffee and muffin at cafes for a token eating out experience. Catch your own fish. Fishing licence is required in NZ.

4. Internet is really hard to get in NZ, so it might be worth getting a pre-paid USD modem for around $100. Get the right download volume to meet your needs and time constraints.

5. Cost of living is high, so consider bringing all your camping needs. There is limited competition and you might not have time to buy stuff 2nd-hand from salvation army or 2nd hand shops, or from TradeMe.co.nz.

6. NZ experiences - Consider carefully the experiences you have because anything related to tourism is overpriced because of demand. i.e. The cost of entering Rotorua hot springs are excessive, so you are better off going to Yellowstone (USA). The old reasonably priced experiences in NZ are swimming at the beach, walking bush trails and renting houses. If you do overnight trips, alpine huts can cost anything from zero to $50/night, depending on demand. This is why camping is the ultimate stop-gap.

7. Flights - The best entries into NZ are Jetstar (from Australia or Japan), Air Asia X (from March from KL) from Gold Coast or Melbourne; as these are the discount airlines. Otherwise check out the www.jetstar.com website.

The best way to enjoy NZ is to visit in the summer and stay on a 3-month lease in places like Queenstown (South Is), Te Anau (Sth), Wanganui (Nth) and Auckland (Nth). This makes maximum use of your car. You can start in the south in summer, and spend the winter in Auckland.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Home stay in New Zealand

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One of the cheapest ways to travel around a country is by home stay. Home stay is popular for older people, couples, students, and most particularly girls, because there is some assurance of having a host to provide support. Most backpackers offer similar support, however a host offers a more homely experience, though in all probability, not the professionalism, and perhaps not all the services. You will in most respects get better services in terms of furnishings, bedding, and many hosts offer food and travel. You might find yourself becoming a member of a family.

Another benefit for guests is that you are able to ensure that the person has police clearances. Any person who reports bad service is likely to see a bad host stricken from their membership base, offering some assurance to you. I would advise anyone who wants to make payment to pay via Paypal because at least you have some recourse if they don't provide the service you require. It is common to pay a deposit before you arrive, say of $200, and then the balance upon arrival.

Personally, home stays do not always work out because there are many people who are looking for extra income. The problem is often in the form of:

1. Differing standards of cleanliness

2. Different expectations in terms of services offered, i.e. You might have expected your own bathroom, greater privacy, you might not have expected any men to be there. You might have expected wifi internet, or access to a computer.

3. Differences in terms of food style or preparation, i.e. If you host is offering food, you want to inquire as to the types of food they eat (i.e. fatty foods, takeaway or vegetarian), and whether you will be able to prepared your own.

4. Isolation from transport, i.e. You might have expected the location to be close to transport, and you might have expected more transport.

In order to avoid these problems it might be preferable if you have a trial night, but this is not always possible. It is better to simply ask questions.

For more information of home staying in any country - see the HomeStay.com website.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

The best place in the world

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NZ is not 'the land of milk and honey' that a lot of people would expect, but then its hard to think of any place which is. NZ is of course a diverse country offering a range of experience, and of course every person has different values; but there is also a great deal that unites us, and in as much as we might forget, we do have a human nature which demands certain objective values for our happiness.

So where does NZ rank - its a wonderful place to live in some respects, but it is also a challenge in other respects. Consider some of the following comments at Expat Forum.

I have lived in Australia, NZ, Japan and the Philippines. Australia is my favourite place to live, and I suspect I will head back that way within the next few years.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

High rate of animal cruelty in NZ

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According to the NZ Herald, there has been a 2nd attack upon some fur seals at Kaikoura, on the Northern tip of the Southern Island of NZ. I visited those seals about a year ago. Some idiots have come along and killed about 20 of them. What was interesting was the fact that there is apparently a waterfall in the area where the seals swim. This would have been a great attraction to visit if I had known about it.

I have seen a great many cases of animal cruelty in NZ in the last 2 years I have been here. There are far more cases that in Australia. I attribute this to two issues:

1. The more collectivist (socialistic) ethic of NZ

2. The higher incidence of child abuse, such that animal abuse is a practical extension

3. The high incidence of peer pressure-yobbo-loutish behaviour by youths drinking alcohol

4. Low population of NZ, which makes the place a little boring for youths. There is not much of a business culture, and this might be explained by the lack of opportunities for a small, isolated island population offering little in the way of investment or job opportunities. Small businesses have little opportunity to expand with minimal population growth. Everyone is taking off to Australia.

6. The high legal allowances for drinking - 9 beers in the first 2 hours compared to 4 in Australia.

Ethics is the big issue as far as I am concerned. The other issues merely provide the specific context in which crimes occur. There are a number of things that foreigners come to NZ for, and I would think chief among their list are the following - but maybe NZ is simply burning its bridges:

1. Natural settings - the mountain vistas, the wildlife, the trails - Sadly there are too few trails to walk along, or roads to access remote regions. There is a lack of public toilets.

2. Cultural settings - English gardens, cafes - lovely and reasonably priced, often free gardens. I wish more cafes had free wifi. Shopping malls food courts are pretty dirty since no one cleans the tables, or the spilt drinks, etc.

3. Small towns, low population - They are still pleasant - just avoid the drunken youths around and in the bars. I never see gang members in NZ, except whizzing past on their Harley's.

4. Friendly people - they are friendly and related, just avoid the drunken louts at night and on the road, or when your illegally camping in some campervan by the beach.

5. Low cost - Less so with the increase in the GST, but aided by new low-cost flights from Asia with Air Asia X.

The cruelty is a low note to end on, so let me take it a little lower. NZ has a pretty bad crime rate. Most news seems to be punctuated by animal stories - whether its a seal being clubbed or sighted, or the murder of someone working home...usually from a pub. Other than that the news is about Australia and politicians. Little surprise 40,000 New Zealanders are escaping to Australia each year. It makes you wonder - is NZ's problem perceptions or the people. I hope you stay long enough to find out because it is a beautiful country.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

New discount airline entrant to NZ - AirAsia X

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Good news for New Zealanders! AirAsia X, a Malaysian-based discount airline is flighting from Kuala Lumpur to Christchurch. The airline will start taking bookings from the 3rd Dec 2010 for flights from 1st March 2011. The promotion is offering flights for $99 plus taxes, which I guess will be around $150, so $250 each way. The problem is that AirAsia X and its competitor, Tiger Airlines, which only flies to Melbourne and Perth often offer a very cheap single route, so you pay full price for the return. This is a problem if immigration at your destination country requires an outward-bound ticket. Its fine if you are leap-frogging because you need only have '1 leap' booked ahead, but that's lost flexibility.

I have yet to fly AirAsia X, but like a lot of discount airlines, expect to pay extra for food, beverages, checked baggage, excess baggage and ticket changes. These airlines offer a lot of discounts, so its worth waiting for a good deal. Consider the options:

1. Jetstar - flights from Auckland or Christchurch to Melbourne, Sydney, Gold Coast, link to Jetstar or AirAsia X in Gold Coast or Melbourne for flights to Asia.

2. Jetstar - from Auckland direct to Japan (Osaka or Tokyo-Narita). Some discount airlines fly to/from Japan. i.e. Cebu Pacific, and Chinese airlines from Haneda Airport (Tokyo).

3. Air NZ - they offer cheap Asia flights for two in twin-ticket sales through the TradeMe website.

4. AirAsia X - they fly Christchurch to KL (Malaysia), with links to Japan, China, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia, etc.

5. Pacific Blue - their prices are generally not as competitive as Jetstar, but they do have sales, so worth a look. They are appealing for flights from Wellington to the East Coast of Australia.

More discount airlines for NZ is great news because it has been difficult for travellers to fly to NZ from Asia. Air NZ offers great service, but you pay for it. Jetstar and Pacific Blue also offer comparable service cheaply, but they have limited offerings. Wellington only offers a limited number of destinations because of its smaller airstrip. i.e. Confined to smaller planes. When booking flights from Wellington, unlike the other airports, they do not add their airport tax to the ticket price. This is wrong to me because passengers should be treated the same.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

NZ - the land of milk and honey?

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There are a number of problems for NZ population growth...the appeal of Australia stands out as a sore tooth for a number of reasons. The most bleating obvious ones are:

1. NZ'ers love to hate the Ozzies, so it places a hole in their hearts to know that some of them are going off to the land of milk and honey. The land of persistent job growth and relentless balance of payments surpluses. Quite simply the land of higher incomes, job growth, housing prices rises, oh...and did I mention population growth. The population of NZ (mostly immigration) grew just 13,ooo for the year, even after including the better performances by using a rolling average. Australian immigration is growing 300,000 a year, though it might halve due to changes in government policy.

If this was the only reason to prefer Australia...

2. I would suggest Australia has the better record on crime rates...significantly so..but then I lived in the nicer parts of Australia. There are a lot of yobbos in NZ, a lot of speeding, alcoholism, bored youths, predatory natures, etc.

3. Diversity - There must be somewhere in Australia to suit your tastes. Of course it can all be about the amount of money it takes, and sadly Australian property is overpriced because of highly restrict land zoning regulations. It really is a form of slavery that the Australian govt makes you live in the city for jobs, and subjects you to rip off land prices by restricting land releases. Why? Because it wants you to be a 'good taxpayer' for the Commonwealth...to defend freedom in 'far flung' parts of the British empire. On this point, I am almost convinced Australia is not the place to live. Oh, and how could I forget the most evil organisation in the world after the MGB, the Fed, the IRS...yes, the Australian Tax Office. Its tentacles have been know to reach into a man's pants and pull off his testicles in one foul swoop on his manhood....in the pursuit of money. So you see...the choice is clear. There is no clear place to live until there is a revolution in Australia by taxpayers. I don't see that any time soon.

Don't get me wrong...NZ is a nice place to live. If I couldn't go to Australia, NZ would be a good 2nd choice...but for the lack of job growth, I'd probably not opt for an isolated island on the other side of the world (unless it was as big as Australia). If I was an American, I'd probably opt to migrate to the Mid-West, where the only crime is the stuff that stays in the family. If I was a Brit, I'd probably buy a section in the back-blocks of the UK with a commute to a city.

The other problems with NZ are the rising consumption takes rates which fall on retirees to a large extent, like foreigners. The other problem is the incessant winds which blow all the time.

This might be why I never stay in one country but seem to travel between a few. There is no single one good place in the world....you have to keep travelling or repress or the bad points. Most of you are repressors of course.....morally ambivalent repressors.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Telecommunications in NZ

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The Commerce Commission has released a report showing that NZ telecom charges are the highest among OECD countries. There are a number of problems:

1. The high cost of data capacity

2. The cross-subsidisation of 'local call' users

3. The requirement for rural customers using data only to have a landline as well, thus they are obliged to pay an extra $56/mth for a service they do not use.

Telecom and Vodafone do not compete much. We currently get the Telecom plan because we do not require a contract. We pay $112/month for 20Gb/mth capacity. The service is reliable enough, though in some areas you can wait for up to 2 years to get a connection. I had better options in the Philippines...a third world country. Australia is about 30% cheaper I believe, though it does depend on your plan and location.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

NZ Telecommunications - infrastructure you can depend on

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Thinking about immigrating to NZ....think twice. The country has the worst telecommunications infrastructure. Internet connections are slow, expensive, and come with low download limits. Some of you are accustomed to no limits on download. There are several problems:

1. Lack of competition on fibre leaving the country - that will change in the next few years

2. Local nodes - all owned by Telecom NZ - which I guess in a static growth market is holding out for new technology.

The result is that people are having to wait up to 2 years for a broadband landline connection, and are otherwise restricted to 4Gb per month download limits for a mobile broadband service, which is severely restrictive in where you can access it.

Matters are better and worse in rural areas. You will have to pay $49/mth for a telephone rental service, even if you are only using data. You will have more chance of getting a broadband connection though, because fewer people are using them.

If this is enough for you to look elsewhere, and you are looking for a similar place on Earth, you might want to consider Tasmania (Australia). It has the fastest broadband in Australia, with speeds of 100Mbps for the whole island, though it is a small island....so much like one island of NZ, but at least it is stitched on to the mainland, and Melbourne for access to a major city and airport. Don't expect a subsea tunnel however, its a 120km wide trip.

In defence of NZ...I have used both the Telecom and Vodafone services and they are both similarly priced and reliable. Telecom at our purchase point was better because we did not have to commit to a contract. I think that is why Vodafone started losing market share.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Wanganui has a great outlook

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An article in the Wanganui Chronicle cites real estates saying that foreigners are taking a growing interest in NZ property. There are compelling reasons for taking an interest in NZ....though also some negatives. The positives are:

1. Economic reform - there are some efforts to improve the administration of the economy. i.e. some cost cutting. Some streamlining, like reforms to the Building Code.

2. Local government elections - locally this can be an important issue for expanding population, or retaining people. For instance, Wanganui is one city which would benefit from a turnaround in population. It is a full-service town losing people to the major cities and abroad, unless the new govt can create jobs. It has a better chance than most towns. Elections are being held in Oct-2010.

3. Commodity prices - NZ is a major producer of commodities, and thus it is a pretty hard currency in an era when China and India have an insatiable demand for them. This will tend to support the currency...as long as consumption is controlled, or interest rates are raised to curtail a blow-out in spending.

4. Rural areas offer lifestyle values, but also significant improvements in services. The depth of entertainment in Wanganui is restrictive, but there are a great many good cafes, a full range of good restaurants, e.g. Chinese, Korean, Japanese, Indian, Thai, Greek, Turkish, Italian, and of course 'meat and potatoes' NZ cosine.

There are however negatives:

1. Population stagnant: The reality is that in recession a lot of NZ'ers are going to Australia in search of jobs, and increasing integration has limited capacity to create 'manufacturing jobs. NZ does however have the ability to export services to Australia, so few NZ'ers need to move to Australia. There is already a 30% wage differential between the countries, so NZ has a growing competitive advantage. At some point this will prove a strong advantage to NZ.

2. Nothing else comes to mind. There is more..there n

The implications for NZ are clear. At some point it will do very well. We might even see a lot of expatriates return. These rural towns will attract more people. People will find value in the rural acreage as lifestyle blocks and subdivisions; however there is also value in cities like Wanganui. I need only compare the prices in cities like New Plymouth and Stratford to Wanganui. Wanganui is cheap because of depopulation. The time will come when it will start to grow its population. The city has a large 'service catchment', it is well-situated between Auckland and Wellington, it is a weekender from Wellington, it has a lot of resource upside from oil & gas and iron ore, as well as agriculture. It is one of the more appealing towns in NZ. It has an 'undeserved' reputation for gangs. I've lived here 2 years and saw the first person who even resembled a gang member last week.

The town is lovely, the people are friendly, and the beach is ok. The city has the nicest gardens. I kind of wish you don't come because I might have to compete for the use of the park services. It is a windy place, but that makes it 'fresh' for a breezy walk around town. I'm only complaining because I'm from Australia, and I still like it.

Other great value I feel is a place like Port Stephens to Taree in NSW, Australia, and maybe Tasmania if you don't mind being isolated from mainland Australia.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

NZ road rules - second to none

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NZ had finally decided to change its antiquated road rules. In its wisdom some years ago, NZ bureaucrats decided to develop a set of unique road rules which even its smartest intellectuals would not abide by. These road rules are interesting because they attempt to embody 'politeness' into driver road rules. The scheme was a blatant failure. Why? Because people are inherently self-interested. The 'polite society' succumbed to the realities of human nature.

I am not even going to bother describing these silly road rules. Why? Because they are so counter-intuitive, you will start to have nightmares. But get this - these road rules - which no one follows - will not be changed for another 2 years. You might wonder why because the logic is that they should come in after the 2012 Rugby World Club. Why? I guess because NZ loves the opportunity to suffer longer, and because it wants to utterly confuse foreigners with its 'unique culture'. And I guess it does not mind losing a few more lives in senseless accidents. Oh, and I guess it never occurred to people that what comes naturally to people will be an easy adjustment. Expatriate NZ'ers will thank you for sparing them any more confusion.

Rather than waiting until 2012 to apply the changes, why not simply send every household a brochure about the road changes. i.e. 1.5 million households x $2 = $3mil plus costs. This is a lot cheaper than the $70 mil in losses due to increased road accidents. NZ could also do with the resulting lives for population growth, and it might even improve the country's rankings in the international relevance index.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Is NZ a welfare state?

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Mainland Western European countries are famous for their welfare programs. These programs have long been the bane of business who argue that it leaves them with uncompetitive wage structures, less able to finance development and generally tending to incite welfare dependency and cultures. In these countries, government spending can account for around 50% of GDP - half of the entire economy. Some countries have even higher levels of domination.

One might ask is NZ the same - and are there any possibilities of this changing. Consider that:

1. NZ has increased its goods & services tax from 12.5% to 15%

2. NZ local government land rates are relatively high at $1250-1800/annum - because govt provides localised welfare services.

3. NZ has relatively under-funded infrastructure spending

The evidence suggests that NZ is not a welfare state to the same degree as European countries. Government spending as a proportion of GDP I recall being around 30% for the Federal government. It could be better, and its certainly not conveying the right trend with the increase in GST. It did however cut some fat from the bureaucracy.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com