John Key unable to grow population

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New Zealanders are abandoning NZ at even faster rates. There are a number of good reasons for expecting this:

1. Canterbury (Christchurch) earthquake has given residents the hebbee geebees; and they don't want to place themselves in a situation where they could be vulnerable to another spell of it. The reality is that the earthquake rebuild will mean this will be a time of prosperity for those who go to Christchurch; though people will want to be careful about where they live, and what they live in. i.e. avoid brittle (brick in particular) structures; avoid loose sediment piles subject to liquefaction.

2. Cost cutting by government is going to see Australia absorb a lot of the public servants that the National Party is cutting. This is of course great for Australia since it adds to their demand; even if its 'good for nothing' public servants. The reality is that John Key is just killing NZ's potential for a recovery in economic demand. Paradoxically, public servants are probably among the nation's biggest savers. They have university education; but they didn't do much with it, so they lose point. They do eat and fart though; so Australia will take them.

The paradox is that NZ has some value propositions going forward. There are some brilliant Asian immigrants entering the country who really have a good work ethic. People are inclined to make generalisations about Asians. What they need to realise is that the ones that come here are usually the brightest in their 'over-populated' nations. I know some of them are difficult to understand. Geez, I spoke to a Chinese girl in Sydney. Very impressive....very smart...problem was I could barely understand here. Anyway, that aside, these people are very hungry, and they will greatly add to NZ wealth if NZ embraces them. Unfortunately, surveys show that Asians are the most discriminated group in NZ; followed by the Samoans. I personally this Aussies are persecuted here; but we can take it. We know its coming from a place of immense insecurity, so we can brush it aside. They all change when they migrate to an Aussie. They are never cured of the self-righteousness though. My mom has a NZ BF....he is forever saying he loves the country...but he never goes back.

The good news though is that NZ is dealing with the blow out in local government spending. Personally though, I don't believe centralising spending will make matters better. In fact it will just result in further job losses from rural areas, and this again could see more NZ'ers leaving. This government seems determined to drive NZ'ers out of the country. Everything they do is 'anti-jobs'. I appreciate the desire to make savings; but you don't replace a useless job with a useless welfare recipient. This will just compel them to go abroad. This will result in more job losses and business closures in the private sector; particularly in the rural areas of NZ. These towns are already over-serviced and over-capitalised, with depopulation still in some areas. We need the population of NZ growing.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Wanganui: Small town thinking for big town problem

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NZ residents of Wanganui are being asked whether they ought to approve a $141 million flood mitigation plan - a huge cost burden for a depopulating town, when there is a far more prudent and lucrative opportunity - build a hydro-electric scheme. My thoughts posted at Wanganui Chronicle letters below:

How about a flood mitigation scheme upriver to avoid the prospect of a flood and generate hydro-electricity for a century for free. Maybe the city could get free electricity, to offset the extortion by the power companies after stage 2 of the privatisation/self-regulation. Perhaps the council could finance the scheme through its EnergyDirect investment (50% owned by the council)....though maybe self-regulation precludes such vertical integration. I forget.

I might add - a few greenies might be flooded out of the valley at the same time. Seriously, though, why spend $141.4 million on remedial work when you can create something of value or productive, that ultimately serves 2 purposes, perhaps 3 (water supply in times of drought).

This of course is too abstract for councils accustomed to reactionary solutions. Why spend on costs when you can create assets. Of course Annette Main, whose property lies in this vicinity could be expected to have a vested interest, so maybe no progress will be made. Perhaps she needs to keep a back seat in our extortion-based political system.

Think about the following figures - electricity prices in NZ - page 148 of the Ministry of Development website. Comparing the ratio of residential electricity prices / industrial electricity prices - suggests a 2.5x premium for residential consumers over bulk electricity consumers. Its the worst ratio in the world...then look at the same ratio for gas...its even worse 4.8x - so consumers are being ripped off by producers and distributors of gas and electricity despite the capital cost of these assets being fully sunk by govt by the 1980s, and no fuel cost for the 70% of generating capacity which is hydro.

Perhaps rate payers ought to convince the council to 'invest' in new generating capacity rather than spending on 'damage prevention'....that's a rather expensive contingency planning 'cost' for an event that may not occur; protection which might not work; and work that offers no improvement. Perhaps council could even protect ratepayers from the extortionate prices of the national powerco's by offering ratepayers a cost+ROI electricity price; or better still adopt market pricing, and retain the power asset revenue to alleviate future rates. Concessional electricity prices could also be used to attract new industries. You wanted jobs didn't you. Cheap electricity is known to attract jobs. But will you allow a dam on the Wanganui River?? If it protects your homes?

Am I missing something?

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Photos of Christchurch at its best and worst

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Interested in seeing some photos of the Christchurch historic buildings before and after; take a look at these photos. It must be acknowledged that these buildings appear to be only superficially damaged. The problem is the structural integrity might be compromised. It was a very shallow earthquake, only 10km from the city centre. It could not have been much worse because the earthquake occurred during the day, so there is probably 300-odd people dead. It would have been worse perhaps if it was not lunchtime. If it was nighttime, maybe only 30 people would have been killed. It was very unlikely to have a direct hit on the city centre like this. It is unlikely to get any worse....unless Wellington is next. That would be truly dire....though I would not miss the destruction of the NZ parliamentary building...preferably when it is sitting. Sadly, NZ has not been been having much luck lately.

Anyone retaining some sense of loyalty to their political masters ought to reflect on:

1. Their lack of accountability

2. Their capacity to extort wealth from people

3. Their lack of principles

4. Their lack of honesty

I must say, I am far more impressed by leaders in local government. The mayor of Christchurch does a far better job. Might that be because local government leaders are less able to side-step issues; or maybe its because people are not forced to 'choose', so each vote becomes more real. Or maybe its because their taxing powers are much more restricted. In any respect, its not a desirable system....and a spin off from the main game. Want a conception for a better NZ - consider this blog.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Submissions on local government election bill

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Here is my submission to the NZ government on the election of politicians in local government. Submissions close 1st Feb 2011.

Why do you imagine that voters are not turning out? Might they appreciate that values are not collective? Might they realise that any 'collective wisdom' is merely extortion by those who purport to represent the majority? Frankly, I don't think many of them grasp it. Why should they - when they are given no real opportunity to participate. They are instead obliged to pay out rates unconditionally. Mind you at least local govt more closely approximates real or tangible services, as opposed to the federal budget. But there is still a great deal of collectivist waste involved.

Why do you think there is a great deal of contempt for politicians in the public domain? Might it reflect the incapacity and unwillingness of candidates to be accountable, to respect facts, to educate them...as opposed to telling them what they want to hear.

At least in local politics there is some notion of competition, but clearly that is not enough, when there is extortion when the election results are finalised. We live in hope for capable people, but the reality is that people are so repressed, they do not want capabilities which would require them to think. i.e. They want to pretend that some person is going to take care of them, and politicians as middlemen are elected to peddle the nonsense which allows them to retain that illusion. Now, do you imagine that educational standards are elevated by helping people delude themselves into thinking that others will care for them? No. They will never be better educated by this system than they are now...because they will only get more repressed, as our system of law, taxation, business gets more complicated. This complexity is not a question of logic...its a question of arbitrary imposition and compliance, which means they have no interest or prospect of understanding it. You invest millions in databases to benefit from technology, and yet you expect lay persons to understand your complicated, arbitrary rules, which defy logic.

The importance of local govt is peripheral to the main game which is the national govt laws which sanction its existence, and legitimatise the way it functions.

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Author Andrew Sheldon| Applied Critical Thinking | www.SheldonThinks.com

Wanganui local government election debate

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I have had the opportunity to get to know some of the candidates for mayor in the lead-up to the Wanganui District Council elections. First of all, whilst I am passionate about ideas, I cannot say I really have much interest in the day-to-day politicking. Having attended one candidates election meeting, and the debate between the top 6 (of 12) candidates, I am really only interested in the process for local elections, as well as the issues which are impacting on Wanganui. I have only been in Wanganui for 2 years, so this was an opportunity to learn more.

I must say the meeting in the Wanganui Memorial Hall was more comic than anything else. How may election campaigns have a self-proclaimed ignoramus who thinks he can learn it on the job, and a boy-wonder (21yo) transvestite. What one realises about politics is that there is a lot of self-promotion. Being a mayor or councillor is a means to get business profile through politics. For this reason, it just might make more sense to reduce the number of councillors from 12 part-time members to 6 full-time members. Why? This would discourage the practice of using politics for business purposes, as well as attracting committed public servants, as well as a higher quality of candidate. Wanganui is a small place. If a 21yo kid is a serious contender then we need to raise the standard.

People will say that kids need representation. True enough, but at 21yo, you have spent more time with a dummy in your mouth than as an independent human being. That is not to say this guy is not smarter than 50% of the population. He is very smart and funny. But lets wait until he has at least learned a few life lessons. He displayed little understanding of economics. Sadly, neither did any of the other candidates.

Phillipa Hogan-Rice (?) opened with by far the best speech, but she really lost it for the impromptu questions. She spent most of the time talking about her sporting career, and how being a parent would make her a better mayor. She even said she was tough because she had to fight her brothers. This is no playground leadership issue. Again...low standards. She was even shown up by the 'smart kid'. Her sole solid position was her initial presentation and her position on EnergyDirect. I would have voted for her if she endured, but she really did lose credibility in the end. She actually undersold her skills on committees as a prior councillor. I think she lost her confidence under attack by 'boy wonder'.

Annette Main actually had a poor initial presentation. The problem was it was generic and boring. She did however recover in the impromptu questionnaire, and clearly has the most skill as a speaker, and the best leadership skills. She has abodes in Wanganui City and rural Wanganui, she owns a business, she manages the city market, and has a lot of connections in the City. She has a lot of committee and regional government experience. She did not really faulter. She did not have the personality of any of the other candidates, but that might come with more confidence, and I see it as less important. The most important issue is economic management, and as 'boy wonder' noted, Philippa is 'off-track' promoting an expensive velodrome which will 'maybe' used by 50 new residents. Life prospective Olympians have much money to invest in Wanganui. Starved for cash, and such facilities will attract people for just a week a year. Silly idea. The 'boy wonder' had a good suggestion - an ice rink. Though I have no info on such facilities. It would be far cheaper to build. So 'boy wonder' is a smart kid.

Dot McKinnon is the other serious contender by virtue of her position as Deputy Mayor. The problem with her is that she is boring and inept. She has been a patsy for outgoing Michael Law. She has little understanding of the issues, when as Deputy Mayor, she ought to be the strongest of the speakers. She was saying 'training' was the key to increasing employment growth in Wanganui. Actually training will actually reduce the population because it will encourage skilled people to leave for higher incomes and opportunities elsewhere. Job creation or demand is the critical issue, so increasing services, and increasing promotion of this great city is the key. i.e. It is about attracting foreigners and city people with money. The lifestylers like authors and early retirees are the key, including those internet savvy business operators from abroad who can earn USDs. Training = emigration to Australia or Auckland. She lack of market realism reminds me of those annoying bureaucrats. She reminds me of Kevin Rudd. Uninspiring!

In conclusion, I am worried that Annette Main is a 'soft' humanist, however I think she is the most promising person, with a lot of capable people behind her.

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Author: Andrew Sheldon

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www.SheldonThinks.com

Performance of Wanganui Mayor NZ

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Michael Laws is a rather high profile mayor in NZ. Mostly it is because of his antics. It always gets a lot of national attention, as well as derision. His conservatism is popular with the retirees in Wanganui I suspect. But let's look at his performance. The council rates are increasing by 4.5% in 2010/11. This seems most enough when you consider inflation, but one might ask why councils can't achieve cost reductions through efficiencies, particularly when we are talking about a rural region subject to steady population.

I think one of the biggest opportunities for saving public money is by adopting a per volume cost for water usage. I note the impact of free water on the community. My neighbour said 'Andrew, don't worry about wasting water, its free'. I replied 'nothing is free', someone always pays. The reality is that Wanganui water is expensive because it is derived from bores as opposed to regulated dam storage. The implication is that if there was an increase in population, we would need to develop more boring capacity. I note that the council recently developed new boring capacity to substitute for the failed no. 1 bore. It should have simply adopted a pro-rata pricing of water. Now, this might be harder than it sounds, i.e. Maybe the water in NZ is unmetered. I guess, unlike Australia, they are so accustomed to having free water. Even so, even if usage was collectively based on the premise of 'user pays', it might still have some effect, even if weaker. i.e. My neighbour would be less inclined to say 'its free', knowing that collectively I was paying more because of his actions.

Another big mistake is for Wanganui Council to have paid $20 million (my understanding) for Wanganui Gas. This utility is a legacy of the old electricity and gas board days. By buying the balance of the utility from its JV partner, it is exposing rate payers to commercial risks which we don't need. Consider for starters that the industry is undergoing consolidation. How is its retail arm 'Energy Direct' going to compete with the full service providers. I might add that the window of opportunity to sell this utility is dying. Consider that the ratio of residential to industrial gas prices in NZ are the highest in the world- even higher than statist Japan, where consumers always get a bad deal. Literally slaves to the state. NZ residential gas prices based on last years prices are 10x greater than the prices for utilities. The reason of course is that the NZ privatisation scheme was a sham, and the very uncompetitive regime for gas and electricity in NZ. Consider that consumers are baying full price for electricity, when most capacity is operated at almost zero cost. Water is free, and no fuel cost. Markets demand you pay the marginal price, which is the cost of high-cost wind, also near-free to operate, but costly to install. The implication is that if some person decided to commission a 600MW power plant, prices could halve, and the utilities would still make a great profit. The current regime is huge profits for the utilities, as well as government, and it raises the question of whether the utilities have paid huge kickbacks to secret bank accounts in Switzerland in order to structure 'deals' like these. Hard to say if its incompetence or corruption. There is a fine line between stupidity and deceit.

It ought to be apparent though that Wanganui Council has on benefit to derive from being in the industry given that the returns are never going to be greater. Get out why you can! Coal seam gas would erode their profitability when developed in the Waikato Basin, greater convergence can be expected, etc. There is better ways to attract jobs that by propping up historical practices.

It is apparent that the council is creating a problem of future unfunded liabilities by underspending on the maintenance of public infrastructure. These problems or cost items will not disappear, which means that the Council is moderating rate increases by increasing future contingencies. I am a believer in very small government, so the idea of a local government having $84 million in debt is ridiculous, particularly one which cannot attract people (i.e. rate payers). Worse still is the fact that they project it will increase to $96 million before falling. Who can know that is reasonable - that the debt will fall to $66mil in 2018/19? Are they projecting a population explosion to justify it, or an increase in future rates? Hard to see if this is possible if they are pushing capital outlays into the future.

Laws makes the argument that Wanganui will be among the 'elite' group of 16 councils (of 73) able to reduce debt in this period. This says nothing since Wanganui is among the few councils likely to be forecasting stagnant population growth. i.e. No capital expenditure demands. Such 'relativist' statements are therefore misleading.

I do think the council is doing a good job improving the visual appeal of the city. This will attract tourism, and improve property prices. Wanganui is a great place to live, and I also support their desire to improve the negative perception of Wanganui. People seem to think this town is overrun by gangs. I have yet to see any gang activity in the year I have lived here. Not seen a gang member at all, and we live close to hot spots of trouble. Maybe this is the result of the anti-crime initiatives, because I must say in the first 8 months of living here, I was seeing a police car every day. Now its once a week.

I also appreciate the opportunity the council has given to make public submissions. Not a believer in representative democracy, but better than nothing. No accountability, so its one-sided representation. What is the point of disclosure if you have no recourse for 3-4 years; and that recourse is zilch in comparison to the rest of the unthinking electorate.